FXUS62 KTAE 251432
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
930 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE CWA AS A WINDSHIFT HAS OCCURRED AT 
KCTY. CLEARED THE LAST REMAINING COUNTIES FROM WATCH #810 AT 13Z. 
SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO PICK SLOWLY BEHIND THE FRONT... 
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WEST OF THE RIVER...ONLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST 
WINDS EAST OF THE RIVER. TEMPS AT 14Z RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 
70 IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA. DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 
THE MID 40S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS ACROSS 
THE REGION BEING REPORTED. 

ON THE LARGER SCALE...887MB SURFACE LOW ON THE ILLINOIS-IOWA BORDER 
WITH THE FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. WARM FRONT EXITS 
INTO THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. 
UNBELIEVABLE 526DM UPPER LOW STRUCTURE WITH CLOSED CONTOURS COVERING 
ALL OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION. RIDGING IS SITUATED ON BOTH COASTS. 
100-KT OR SO SUBTROPICAL JET SCREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 125KT POLAR JET COMING ACROSS THE 
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 

&&

.UPDATE...WILL UPDATE POPS TO REFLECT CONVECTION MOVING EAST OUT OF 
THE CWA. ADJUSTED OFFSHORE WINDS TO REFLECT CURRENT LULL. TEMPS AND 
DEWPOINTS ARE FINE. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 13Z...COLD FRONT HAD JUST PASSED VLD. TLH 
SOUNDING...TAKEN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT SHOWED DEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL 
SATURATED LAYER UP TO 14KFT WITH DRY AIR ABV. IR SATELLITE IMAGES 
DEPICT THIS CLOUDINESS EXTENDING BACK TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SOME 
BREAKS APPEAR UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEX. EXPECT CIGS TO 
REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY BUT WITH SOME EROSION FROM LOW LEVELS UPWARD 
DURING DAY. EXPECT VFR CIGS TO BE PREVALENT BY MID DAY. 

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE MOSTLY WESTERLY ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THIS 
MORNING...RUNNING 15 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 6 AND 9 
FEET AT THE BUOYS. THIS LULL IN THE WINDS WAS EXPECTED BEFORE THE 
STRONGER SURGE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TODAY. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY 
WATCH/WARNINGS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON SATURDAY. CURRENT 
THINKING IS THAT VERY COOL TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ANY DURATIONS 
OF 35 PERCENT OR LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG 
BEND AND PANHANDLE TO NO MORE THAN 2 TO 3 HOURS AT BEST...AND LIGHT 
WINDS SHOULD KEEP DISPERSIONS LOW. 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...NONE.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TODAY FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAY...COASTAL WALTON...GULF.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TODAY FOR APALACHEE BAY OR  
     THE COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL    
     OUT TO 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR OTHER ALL LEGS 
     EXCEPT APALACHEE BAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GOREE
REST OF DISCUSSION...WATSON