FXUS61 KAKQ 290846
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE GULF COAST STATES
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GA/FL
COAST. TO THE WEST...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER THE MIDDLE MO
VLY...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALOFT...A STRONG CUTOFF UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO.
HI PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CST TODAY...WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE
SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. THE RESULT WILL BE A MILDER
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASING HI CLDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLVL
DISTURBANCE WL FILTER INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY...AND DIGITAL DB
WORDING WL MOSTLY SNY SKY BECMG PARTLY SNY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE
THRU THE 60S...WITH MID TO UPR 60S INLAND/PIEDMONT OF VA AND NC.
TONIGHT...
MID TO HIGH CLDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN FM NW TO
SE TNGT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE OH VLY
INTO THE MTNS OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE WAS IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY ACCEPTED A LOCALLY ADJUSTED MET/MAV BLEND
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...YIELDING LOWS IN THE M/U 40S MOST ZONES...TO
L50S OVER SERN ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LTR MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN FOR
CENTRAL ZONES AND MON NGT OVER EASTERN ZONES. UTILIZED A NAM/SREF
BLEND IN TIMING SHOWERS...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINLY ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. GIVEN STRAIGHT DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...STILL
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH THIS FROPA. 03Z SREF
PLUMES CONCUR WITH NEWEST HPC QPF VALUES: GENERALLY 0.10 OR LESS
OVER THE PIEDMONT...TO ON THE ORDER OF 0.10 TO 0.20 OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON MON RANGING FM THE MID 50S
IN THE NW TO MID 60S SE.
ACCELERATED CLEARING ON MONDAY NIGHT CONSIDERING STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NR 40 OVER
EASTERN ZONES.
TUESDAY...
CLEARING CONTINUES ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES SPILLS OVER THE AREA
FROM THE SW AND UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OUT AND BECOMES QUASI ZONAL
BY LTR TUE/ERY WED. THIS SHUD TRANSLATE TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SNY
SKIES...AND MAX TEMPS IN THE M/U50S SOUTHERN ZONES (LWR TO MID 50S
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). ANOTHER CLEAR/COOL NIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THE UPR LVL SYSTEM MID
WK OVER THE FAR SOUTH AND ITS PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS
TO THE E/NE INTO THE ERN CONUS. SEEMS THE GFS IS BY FAR THE QUICKEST
TO TRACK THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA AND CONSENSUS HAS LEAD TO GOING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLN WITH BACKING OF ITS PERFORMANCE OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEMS. PLUS THE GFS HAS BEEN
LEANING TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLN WITH H50 FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE
DELAYED INITIAL TIMING OF PRECIP INTO THE RGN AS IT WILL TAKE TIME
TO SATURATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START OFF DRY AND MAINLY CLR. CLDS PUSH INTO
THE AREA FROM SW TO NE WED MORNING...AND OVERRUNNING LGT PRECIP
LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE RGN LTR WED AFTN/EVE AND SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT INITIALLY AS IT SPREADS SW TO NE INTO WED NIGHT. BULK OF
PRECIP LOOKS TO OCCUR LT WED NIGHT/THU AM BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE
DAY THU. GIVEN TRENDS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FURTHER
DELAY IN TIMING OF PRECIP. OVERALL THOUGH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
A DECENT RAINFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA WITH AMOUNTS IN GENERAL
RANGING FROM 1-3 INCHES (W/LOCALLY HIGHER/LOWER AMTS POSSIBLE).
GRANTED PRECIP POTENTIAL COULD CHANGE BUT THIS IS THE FIRST
INITIAL GUESS OF WHAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING. THIS WILL CHANGE IF
SYSTEM BECOMES MORE STAGNANT/SLOWER EAST PROGRESSION...WHICH SO
FAR THE TREND OF THE H50 FLOW CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN/INTENSIFY AT
MID LVLS AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. IF THIS OCCURS...WHICH ALREADY
WE ARE ANTICIPATING...PRECIP AMOUNTS MAY LIKELY BE MORE. SOME OF
THE NRN STREAM FLOW WILL PHASE INTO THE SRN STREAM FLOW LATE WK
AND INTO THE WKND BEHIND SYSTEM...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR BLO NRML
TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TNGT AS M/ULVL CLDNS GRDLY SPRDS INTO RGN FM THE WSW.
PTNTL PD OF MVFR CIGS W/ PSBL RA W/ FNTL PASSAGE MIDDAY/AFTN
MON...THEN BCMG VFR AGN MON NGT/TUE INTO WED. SW WNDS (AVGG AOB 10
KT) TDA...THEN 10-15 KT TNGT INTO MON...B4 SHIFTING TO NW LT MON/MON
NGT (INITIALLY GSTY FOR A SHORT PD OF TIME).
&&
.MARINE...
PREVAILING SWLY FLO TDA INTO MON...SPDS SLOLY INCRSG FM LT TDA INTO
OVRNGT HRS...AND RMNG SO THROUGH MON MRNG (THOUGH CONDS SHOULD STAY
JUST BLO SCA). NEXT CDFNT CRSS THE WTRS BY LT MON AFTN/EVE...W/ NEXT
PD OF AT LEAST MOD LLVL CAA AND SCAS (UNTIL MIDDAY AND/OR AFTN TUE).
HI PRES RETURNS BRIEFLY FM TUE AFTN/EVE INTO WED...B4 LO PRES
APPROACHES FM THE SW. MDLS HV INLAND TRACK FOR SFC LO PRES WED NGT
INTO (ERY) THU...WOULD MEAN INCRSG SE THEN S WNDS AHD OF THE LO (AT
LEAST HI END SCAS)...SHIFTING TO NW (DURG THU) AS THE LO CONTS INTO
NEW ENG.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG/MAM
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
