FXUS63 KMPX 101832
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL START TO RETREAT NORTH TONIGHT AS THE UPPER 
AIRFLOW BEGINS TO BUCKLE IN RESPONSE TO A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE 
TROUGHS MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  STILL ANOTHER COLD DAY ON 
FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO 
THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR 
SLOWLY WARMING BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. 

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER 
NORTH AMERICA. BOTH THE LATEST GFS90 AND ECMWF KEEPS THE NEXT SURGE 
OF ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED UP OVER CANADA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH 
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY. SO IN THE 
MEANTIME...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 
TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S. 

LONG RANGE...WENT BASICALLY A DRY FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES 
MODERATING BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
BROAD NORTHWEST AIRFLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH 
THE DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

UPPER LEVEL TWISTING SHORT WAVE PROMOTING A CORRIDOR OF ASCENT
AND 2 TO 4 KFT CIGS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH WILL SPREAD EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTN. SCATTERED FLURRIES ALSO FOUND IN THIS AREA.
LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE SNOWFLAKE TYPE AND WEAK
INTENSITY...VISIBILITIES ONLY BRIEFLY TAPPING THE MVFR RANGE. AS
ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE STARTS
OVERNIGHT...SOME 3-6 KFT CIGS EXPECTED IN ERN MN AND WRN WI. SFC 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE W THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF
THE TAF THEN BACK AROUND TOMORROW MORNING AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA.

KAXN...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THIS AFTN BUT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF. MAY BE SOME MVFR CLOUDS JUST
BEYOND TAF PERIOD WITH NEXT APPROACHING WAVE.

KSTC...BROKEN 2.5-4 KFT STRATOCU EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTN WITH
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

KRWF...MAIN AXIS OF FORCING FOR FLURRIES HAS JUST MOVED EAST OF
KRWF. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE OF THOSE...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

KMSP...AS UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES KMSP...FLURRIES EXPECTED TO
GET AT LEAST CLOSE TO THE AIRFIELD. CIGS LIKELY TO BRIEFLY DROP TO
2.5-3.5 KFT...THEN HANG AROUND 4 KFT INTO THIS EVE.

KRNH...AIRPORT LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MISS THE FLURRY
ACTION HOWEVER SHOULD SEE SOME NEAR OR MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTN
AND EVE.

KEAU...QUIET AFTN EXPECTED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS THIS
EVE AS WAVE APPROACHES. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JM/MTF