FXUS62 KFFC 260958 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAPPY THANKSGIVING! MODIFIED MARITIME POLAR HIGH WILL BE SETTLING
IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY...MAKING FOR A QUIET BUT SOMEWHAT
BREEZY THANKSGIVING DAY. A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO NW GA BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING WINDS TO GUST UP TO 25 MPH
TODAY AND THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.
SINCE FRONT WILL BE PASSING LATE IN THE DAY...THE BEST MIX-DOWN WILL
OCCUR PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.
STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CONCERN OVER FLURRY POSSIBILITIES IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST GA AFTER FRONT PASSES.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MIGHT SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF FLURRIES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SREF HINTS AT THIS BUT NAM KEEPS PRECIP TO THE NORTH. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE STILL APPARENT...I'LL NOT INCLUDE FLURRIES ATTM.
AFTER FROPA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE
NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM DISAGREEMENTS IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
GUIDANCE MAX/MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY WITHIN THREE DEGREES OF EACH
OTHER AT EACH SITE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. POPS ARE SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE VALUES. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE FLURRIES NORTHEAST.
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS IS WHERE IT GETS INTERESTING. MODELS SEEM TO BE COMING TO SOME
CONSENSUS IN DEVELOPING A SPLIT TROF ALOFT...WITH THE POLAR JET
PORTION ROLLING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET TRAILING IT THROUGH THE GULF COAST BY MIDWEEK.
THE FIRST /NORTHERN/ TROF WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS GA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...ACCORDING TO GFS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF. CANADIAN GEM
DEVELOPS A STRONGER LOW IN THE GULF AND LIFTS IT UP THE FRONT OVER
GA. ALL POINT TO RAIN EVENT FOR MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT...BUT
AMOUNTS ARE VARIED DUE TO THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE SLOWER...WEAKER SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF...AS SUCH SYSTEMS TEND TO
GET OVERDONE AND OVER-HURRIED BY THE GFS.
WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE TROF...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING...TRACK...AND DEPTH OF THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. GFS AGGRESSIVELY FORMS A SFC LOW IN THE GULF THAT LIFTS
INTO GA BY WEDNESDAY. EMWCF HAS MORE OF AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS THE
GULF. CANADIAN ONLY BEGINS TO HINT AT A LOW FORMING. IN THIS
CASE...WILL FAVOR THE GFS...AS ITS ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO SOMETHING
EJECTING FROM THE GULF MIDWEEK. THIS BODES FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
IF IT VERIFIES. DUE TO THE DRAMATIC VARIATION IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE EARLY-WEEK SYSTEM
AND LOW FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. ABOUT ALL THAT CAN BE SAID WITH
SOME CERTAINTY IS TO ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND BECAUSE
NEXT WEEK TURNS WET.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND MCN IS THE
ONLY SITE REPORTING MVFR DUE TO 4SM BR. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 13Z. BASED UPON THE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...ONLY FEW-SCT040 POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
REINFORCING SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
SURFACE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...INCREASING WINDS. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-15KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-25
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BUT REMAIN NEAR 10KTS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 59 34 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
ATLANTA 57 35 56 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
BLAIRSVILLE 51 30 52 29 59 / 0 10 0 0 0
CARTERSVILLE 56 32 54 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 38 58 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
GAINESVILLE 56 35 55 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
MACON 62 35 59 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
ROME 55 33 56 29 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
PEACHTREE CITY 58 32 53 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
VIDALIA 63 35 57 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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