FXUS64 KBMX 272330 CCA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
524 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

AFTER OBSERVING THE FIRST OFFICIAL FREEZE THIS MORNING AT THE 
BIRMINGHAM AIRPORT...WHICH IS EXTREMELY LATE CLIMATOLOGICALLY 
SPEAKING FOR OUR AREA...A TRANQUIL LATE NOVEMBER DAY IS UPON 
US...WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL...AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW 
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTLINES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL STAY WITH US 
THROUGH TODAY...UNTIL WE BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A RETURN FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLY IN 
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST 
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A LIGHT RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST 
WILL BEGIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. THE RETURN FLOW WILL 
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOUT FIVE TO EIGHT DEGREES WARMER THAN 
TODAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH GENERALLY LOW TO MID 60S EXPECTED 
AREAWIDE. THE ONLY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE EXPECTED CLOUD 
COVER. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY...AND COULD AFFECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS 
BY A FEW DEGREES. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY 
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS AHEAD FOR THE LONG TERM...AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH A 
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
INCREASING UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND 
SREF...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIKELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS 
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF MONTGOMERY BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. 
INSTABILITIES WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND LEFT 
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER 
SOUTH ALABAMA...AND KEEP RAIN CHANCES AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER 
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH TUESDAY. AS ADVERTISED EARLIER 
IN THE WEEK BY THE ECMWF MODEL...A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT 
WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY WILL 
QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD....AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOOKS TO 
DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT...AND LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS 
A WARM FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS 
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD...AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PULL THE 
SURFACE LOW OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH SOME WRAP AROUND 
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN 
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...AND THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY 
BELOW NORMAL WITH A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE MODELS ARE STILL INCONSISTENT WITH THE LONG 
RANGE PATTERN...AND THIS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER RUNS.

56/GOGGINS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

NO OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES TO DEAL WITH ACROSS CENTRAL 
ALABAMA TAF SITES OVER NEXT 24 HOURS.  WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT.  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS (WELL ABOVE 15K FEET) STREAMING FROM WEST TO 
EAST WILL ALSO INCH NORTHWARD.  LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY...SO NO 
PRECIP.

I PONDERED PUTTING SOME PATCHY FOG (BCFG) IN THE TCL TAF DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TRANSIENT GROUND FOG DRIFTING 
FROM THE NEARBY RIVER ONTO THE AIR FIELD.  BUT DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE 
LOW...AND I REALLY THINK THE CHANCES OF LOWERED VISIBILITIES ARE 
QUITE LOW.  IF WE GET ANY FG/BR ON THE OBSERVATIONS...THEN WE CAN 
ADD THE BCFG IN THE TAF ON LATER UPDATES.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$