FXUS63 KSGF 111836
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1236 PM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGE HAS EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
WITH A STEADY SOUTH WIND ADVECTING IN WARMER AIR TO THE AREA ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
RISE FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S TO MIDDAY
TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS INCREASING NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI NORTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH QUICK MOVING EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE
TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA STARTING TONIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND AM EXPECTING GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIP L/-RA ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURING RAIN WILL
BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH BULK OF RAINFALL EXPECTED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA.

CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40 ON SATURDAY AND HAVE GONE ON THE COOLER SIDE FOR SUNDAY
AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD HANG ON AND KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
DOWN. IF THE CLOUDS ERODE QUICKER...THEN WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY.

LINDENBERG

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE 
EXTENDED FORECAST.  A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ZONAL FLOW 
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE OZARKS MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS 
FRONT...MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AND HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 
DRY FORECAST. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
SOUTH INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THE SNOW PACK 
IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS...HAVE CONTINUED TO 
UNDERCUT GUIDANCE. THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARKS 
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH RETURN FLOW AND A GRADUAL WARM UP EXPECTED.
 
ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OF THE
OZARKS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A MIDLEVEL
STRATUS DECK IN OKLAHOMA WILL ADVECT NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
VFR.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$