FXUS63 KIND 262311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
ANOTHER TROUGH SPOKE CIRCULATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO 
WAS EXITING INDIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG 
WITH A FEW MIXED IN SNOWFLAKES WERE EXITING INDIANA...BUT WL STILL 
NEED TO BE INCLUDED FOR THE FIRST 1-2 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE 
EASTERN MOST TAF SITES.  

EXTENSIVE MVFR CEILINGS WERE FOUND ACRS INDIANA...ILLINOIS AND 
WISCONSIN...ALL UPSTREAM IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW. TIME 
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED 
LOWER LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO KEEP THE MVFR 
CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS INTO FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON UNTIL SURFACE AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC. 

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN LATE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE 
FINALLY DEPARTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE THE CHANCE AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION 
THE FIRST PERIOD. DURING MID AFTERNOON A TV MET AND WX OBSERVER 
REPORTED SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. LOOKING AT PROJECTED SOUNDINGS 
THEY HAVE WELL BELOW 0 TEMPS ALOFT AND ONLY GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
FRON 1500 ON DOWN. THIS WOULD GIVE SOME MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. BUFKIT 
HAS JUST RAIN SO WILL NOT USE THAT. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN 
ACCUM AND DUE TO WARM SURFACE NO SNOW. WITH THE SPEED THE COLD FRONT 
IS MOVING THROUGH WILL ONLY INCLUDE A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION 
IN THE FAR EAST DURING THE EVENING. BOTH MODEL TEMPS AT 18Z VERY 
CLOSE TO ACTUAL CONDITIONS. VERY LITTLE IF ANY DIFFERENCE IN MODEL 
TEMPS THROUGH 24 HOURS SO WILL GO WITH THEM. SOME DIFFERENCE IN 
MODELS WITH MOVING OUT THE HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. THE NAM IS A 
LITTLE MORE AGRESSIVE THEN THE GFS. BACK EDGE ON SATELLITE PICTURES 
NOT SHOWING MUCH EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DUE TO THIS WENT WITH THE SLOWER 
GFS WITH MOVING OUT THE CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY INDIANA REMAINS UNDER A 
FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 
MODEL TEMPS LOOK OK. THE FLOW FROM THE NW WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO 
GIVE SOME CLOUDS. FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE 
GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION DOES TAKE 
PLACE BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. 
GUIDANCE TEMPS CONTINUE TO DIFFER LITTLE. IF THERE IS ANY DIFFERENCE 
WENT TOWARD THE COOLER ONE SINCE GUIDANCE USUALLY A LITTLE QUICK 
WITH WARM UPS ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
QUICKLY TO THE EAST. SATURDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WI 
TO EASTERN KS. THIS WILL BRING IN INCREASING CLOUDS. THE FRONT WILL 
MOVE INTO INDIANA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL BRING RAIN INTO WEST DURING 
THE MORNING THEN EXTEND IT INTO THE REST OF THE STATE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WENT FOR LOWER THEN GUIDANCE TEMPS. THERE WILL 
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE CHC INTO MONDAY. 

FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AFTER THAT. WILL BRING IN A CHANCE OF RAIN 
ON WEDNESAY ENDING IT ON THURSDAY.  

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WESTERLY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SH
AVIATION...JP