FXUS63 KSGF 082347
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...

A QUICK UPDATE TO HOURLY TEMPS PERFORMED FOR THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF NEVADA...IS CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN. AS THIS LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SFC COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE A MOVE TO THE EAST. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THOUGH...MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE WARMED TO NEAR THE CURRENT
READINGS OF THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...A STEADY DROP IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED.

REGIONAL WSR 88D MOSAIC IS STILL IDENTIFYING POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE. IN ADDITION...WITH STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION
CONTINUING FOR A FEW HOURS...POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. PARTICULARLY IN VALLEY AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
WILL LIKELY NOT GET WIDESPREAD GIVEN THAT THE COLD FRONT AND DRY
ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE IN A FEW HOURS.

WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL REALLY GET GOING OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
MONITORING THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY BASED ON THE
UPCOMING 00Z GUIDANCE.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW AND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE AND TWEAK AS NEEDED BASED ON TRENDS.

GAGAN

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND STRONG WINDS
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DEFINITELY COLDER TEMPERATURES ON THE WAY.

CURRENTLY...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 992.1MBS IN THE DALHART TEXAS METAR OBSERVATION.
PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL WITH THIS DEEPENING LOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSAIC RADAR SHOWING
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS AREA.
UPPER LOW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN EASTERN COLORADO CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

FOR TONIGHT...LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. STRONG 925MB WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 40-45KTS. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT
FOR THESE STRONG WINDS. SOUTHERN COUNTIES MY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.. HAVE
KEPT HIGH POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING AS MODELS SHOW SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE LOW TO
PERSIST UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST. 

WE SEE A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
850/925MB TEMPERATURES FALLING IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES F AT 850MBS
AND AROUND 15 DEGREES F AT 925MBS. OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AT MIDNIGHT WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY SAVE US
FROM FALLING TOO FAR TOMORROW MORNING...BUT NOT THE CASE FOR
THURSDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE HIGH FORECAST OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. WEAKENING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD SET
US UP FOR OUR COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR. MORNING LOWS
THURSDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS FOR ALL OF THE CWA. HIGHS THURSDAY LOOK TO STAY BELOW
FREEZING FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT MAYBE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
BORDERING ARKANSAS.

WARM UP FINALLY RETURNS THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. SEE A WEAK
SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
BUT DO NOT THINK THIS WILL MATERIALIZE INTO MUCH AT ALL. BULK OF
GULF MOISTURE RETURN STAYS WELL SOUTH IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WHEN A STRONGER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
A GRADUAL RISING OF CIGS OVERNIGHT. CLEARING WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF
UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. VIS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE AERODROMES WILL LIKELY ONLY HAVE VIS
RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AIR ENTERS THE
REGION.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-078-080-081-083.

KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ073.

&&

$$