FXUS64 KOHX 082140
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
340 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009
.DISCUSSION...
MIDDLE TN EXPERIENCED A BREAK FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THAT
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER TODAY. NEXT LARGE BATCH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS NOW COVERS MUCH OF WESTERN MIDDLE TN AND EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EASTERN AR AND NORTHERN MS. THIS ACTIVITY
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING 850 MB JET
WHICH WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT.
THUS...RAIN AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST
TO EAST.
ADDITIONALLY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE
TO TIGHTEN. THUS...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NW SECTIONS OF THE
CWA...SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR EASTERN MOST
COUNTIES BEFORE NOON. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR
TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER MORNING HIGHS IN
THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NW AREAS...TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S
DURING THE MORNING AND THEREBY REMAIN IN THE 30S ALL DAY.
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE MID STATE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S IN THE
AFTERNOON.
THE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FROPA WILL REMAIN TIGHT SO THE WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE INTO WED AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WINDS DECREASE.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS YEAR WILL OCCUR ON
THU NT AS THE SFC HIGH WILL RESIDE VERY NEAR THE MID STATE.SHOULD
SEE LOW TEMPS DROP DOWN TO THE 18-22F RANGE FOR MOST AREAS.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND THEN SPREAD
RAIN BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS
SNOW EARLY SATURDAY.
A REINFORCING SFC HIGH WILL THEN BRING SEASONABLY COOLER AIR BACK
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FROM THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 42 48 27 38 / 100 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 38 43 23 36 / 90 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 43 50 23 36 / 100 20 10 10
COLUMBIA 43 49 27 41 / 100 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 44 49 26 42 / 100 10 10 10
WAVERLY 39 44 25 38 / 90 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ005>011-022>034-
056>066-075-077>080-093>095.
&&
$$
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