FXUS61 KBTV 021941
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
241 PM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
VERMONT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...SEVERAL CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WITH
REGARDS TO UPCOMING STORM. FIRST...PRECIP TIMING/AMOUNT OF
QPF...SECOND...POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SE DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...THIRD...POCKETS OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACRS
NEK...FOLLOWED BY OUTSIDE CHC OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED
WITH RA/+RA TONIGHT.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT STORM ACRS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
ATTM...WITH MOVE TWD THE NE CONUS. LATEST 3HR PRES FALLS SHOWS
SYSTEM TRACKING NORTH AND WL PASS JUST WEST OF OUR FA...ACRS THE SLV
ON THURS...PLACING OUR CWA ON THE WARM SIDE. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA
SHOWS LOTS OF ACTIVITY ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH GOOD ULVL
DIVERGENCE SIGNATURE NOTED IN THE VAPOR LOOP...PER CLOUD
ENHANCEMENTS. IN ADDITION...WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LVL DRY SLOT IS
DEVELOPING ACRS THE NORTHERN GULF ATTM...WHICH WL QUICKLY TAPER
STEADIER/HEAVIER PRECIP TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACRS OUR CWA BY THURS
MORNING.
SFC LOW WL TRACK FROM MS VALLEY TO CLEVELAND OHIO BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
NEAR MONTREAL BY 18Z THURS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND PLACING BAND OF STRONG 850 TO 700 MB FGEN AND GOOD
850 TO 500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACRS OUR CWA BTWN 03Z-09Z TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER UVVS MOVE ACRS OUR CWA ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG 925MB JET OF 40 TO 50 KNTS...GOOD 25H JET OF 115
KNTS...WHICH WL PROVIDE GOOD ULVL DIVERGENCE PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES FROM SW TO NE ACRS
OUR CWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE EXPECT WINDOW OF HEAVY PRECIP TO LAST
ONLY 2 TO 5 HRS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00 ACRS
OUR CWA...WITH A FEW SE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS FROM LUDLOW TO JAY
PEAK/DACKS GETTING CLOSE TO AN 1.25". LLVL THERMAL PROFILES AND
THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT AN ALL LIQUID EVENT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SFC LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST. A POCKET OR TWO OF -FZRA WL BE
POSSIBLE ACRS THE NEK AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP...BUT GIVEN WARM SFC
DWPTS AND BL TEMPS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ICE ACCUMULATION.
NEXT QUESTION IS WINDS/POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
NAM12 AND LOCAL 4KM WRF ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 975MB TO 850MB WIND
FIELDS ACRS OUR CWA OF 45 TO 60 KNTS...BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED
MIXING WITH BEST WINDS ABOVE TEMP INVERSION. IN ADDITION...STRONGEST
LLVL WINDS OCCUR WHEN PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE FALLING...WHICH WL
LIMIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC. BUFKIT PROFILES AND SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT BEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA AND WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SW BTWN 15Z AND 20Z THURS. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPE GAPS BTWN RUTLAND AND
CAMBRIDGE...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH...THEN SOME MORE GUSTY WINDS WL
OCCUR ON THURS AS BETTER MIXING DEVELOPS PER LLVL DRYING AND PRES
RISES BEHIND FROPA. IN ADDITION...SOME SW FUNNELING UP THE
SLV...MAY PRODUCE A FEW SFC WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNTS ON THURSDAY ACRS
NORTHERN NY. FINALLY...SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS TONIGHT...WITH LIS APPROACHING 0C AND
SHOWALTERS AROUND 0...BUT FEEL BEST INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM SECTOR WL STAY ACRS SNE...THEREFORE WL NOT MENTION THUNDER
ATTM. OTHERWISE...850-500MB DRY SLOT WL APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN CWA
BY 12Z AND MOVE ACRS OUR REGION BY 18Z THURS...CHANGING THE STEADY
RAIN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. WL MENTION LOWS IN THE 40S CPV
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/SOUTHERLY WINDS AND M/U30S
ELSEWHERE. FOR THURSDAY...2M TEMPS AND 925MB TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS
IN THE M50S SLV/CPV...WITH U40S TO L50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION WL LIFT INTO
EASTERN CANADA AS THE SFC LOW PRES WEAKENS. THIS WL CREATE A
BROAD SW FLW ALOFT WITH SOME LLVL CAA ADVECTION EXPECTED ACRS OUR
CWA. THIS SW FLW WL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR ACRS THE DACKS AND NORTHERN GREEN MTNS IN VT
FROM 00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SAT. GIVEN...SOME LLVL INSTABILITY WITH 85H
TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C BY 00Z SAT...AND SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
IN THE SW FLW ALOFT...WL MENTION LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
DACKS/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WL BE A TRACE TO SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH ONLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPS FRIDAY WL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S TO L40S. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH LLVL CAA ACRS OUR CWA...WHILE NAM IS WARMER AND MUCH WEAKER
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED CAA. IF
NAM SOLUTION IS TRUE...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WL BE
LIMITED...DUE TO LIMITED LLVL CAA AND WEAK SW FLW. WL CONT TO
MENTION LIKELY POPS WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A TRACE TO 2"
INCHES POSSIBLE ACRS THE DACKS/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS BY FRI
NITE...ELSEWHERE ONLY FLURRIES/SPRINKLES EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 222 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NO MAJOR WX SYSTEMS TO AFFECT THE NORTH
COUNTRY DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MDLS HAVE TRENDED
COASTL SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE FOR SAT/SAT NGT AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT FOR THE MOST
INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF WK TROUGHS MAINLY
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...WILL SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL KEEP ANY CHNCE FOR PRECIP TO JUST LGT SNOW SHOWERS. NEXT
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BEST CHANCE FOR CWA TO SEE ACCUM PRECIP AS SFC
LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRNT MV ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND SET UP
ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR MAINLY RAIN ATTM...BUT TRACK WILL BE KEY TO PRECIP TYPE. CD
AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGEOVER TO
-SW LATE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TRACK. KEPT CLOSE TO MDL NUMBERS FOR BOTH HIGHS/LOWS DUE TO RIDGE
PLACEMENT OVER AREA. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS IN CLD COVER EXPECTED
FOR BOTH DAY AND NGT...TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
(850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM -8C TO -12C...W/ WARMER TEMPS TOTHE
SOUTH) UNTIL MIDWEEK WHEN SFC LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...COND ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN VFR THRU
03Z THURS AS HIGH CLDS WORK N OVER THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP BY 03Z AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MVS NORTH. MVFR/IFR COND
WILL THEN PERSIST THRU REST OF FORECAST PERIOD AS RAIN DEVELOPS.
VSBY WILL DROP TO 3-5SM W/ TEMP DOWN TO 1-2SM AT TIMES IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL/FG. CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM BKN010-030 DURING THIS TIME.
HEAVIST RAIN EXPECTED FROM 08Z-14Z THURS. OTHER ISSUE WILL BE
STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. SE GRADIENT WILL INCR OVER THE AREA W/
10-20KTS AND GUSTS NEAR 30KTS POSSIBLE(MSS/SLK WILL SEE WINDS MORE
EASTERLY). EVENTUALLY ALL SITES WILL SEE WIND SHIFT TO MORE WSW
10-20KTS BY 18Z THURS AS SFC LOW MVS N OF THE AREA. POTENTIAL FROM
08Z-12Z TO SEE WIND SHEAR 40-50KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS/KSLK TERMINAL.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
SNOW...ESP EAST.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...MAINLY VFR THOUGH W/OCCNL MVFR/IFR IN LAKE
SHSN...MAINLY AT THE KSLK TERMINAL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/?/2009 XXXX
4. 12/1/1948 40.7
5. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
8. 11/28/1913 56.5
9. 11/27/1941 57.7
10. 11/26/1982 80.5
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/NEILES
CLIMATE...
