FXUS61 KILN 110537
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1237 AM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT. THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL THEN SLIDE TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
CLEAR. WINDS WILL NOT GO CALM...HOWEVER SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTH WILL SEE WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH OVERNIGHT. ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOWER TEMPERATURES...SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE NORTH COULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS NEGATIVE FIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
H5 HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ON FRI AS H5 LOW LIFTS OUT.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE TN VLY.
DRY LOW LEVELS AND THE WLY FLOW OFF THE LAKES SHOULD KEEP LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS N OF THE REGION....HOWEVER H7 AND H3 MOISTURE WILL
BRING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY. H8 TEMPS STILL PRETTY
COLD...SO RAN COOLER THAN THE MAV FOR HIGH FRI.
CENTER OF HIGH SLIDES INTO THE APPALACHIANS FRI NGT....THEN TO THE
COAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. STILL
STAYED BELOW THE MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH SAT HOWEVER.
H5 S/W LIFTS UP THRU THE TN VLY INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS SAT NGT.
THIS COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL PUSH AN AREA OF PCPN N INTO THE FA. H8 TEMPS WILL BE WARM
ENUF FOR THE PCPN TO FROM AS RAIN...HOWEVER SFC TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PCPN WORKS IN. ADDED
MENTION OF FZRA/SLEET AT THE ONSET OF THE PCPN. SRN LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO RAIN TOWARDS 12Z SUN AND WARMER SFC AIR
WORKS IN. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR CONFIDENCE TO BE HIGH ENUF TO
ISSUE ANY TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL MENTION IT IN THE
HWO HOWEVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY STARTS OUT WITH A GOOD BIT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER OHVLY...WRINGING OUT SOME RAIN EARLY. SURFACE TEMPS ARE
TICKLING THE 30-32 DEG RANGE OVER THE NORTH HALF AND INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM HIGHER...DECIDED TO FCST THE FREEZING RAIN. SNOW IS NOT
REALLY GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY HERE DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT SO ITS A
RAIN EVENT DEPENDENT ON SFC TEMPS. THE LIFT SOURCE QUICKLY MOVES
NORTHEAST WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WARM FRONT AND PRECIP CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER WILL CUT OFF LATER IN THE DAY AS WAA SETTLES IN.
SUN NIGHT TEMPS COULD GO EITHER WAY WITH WAA AND CLEAR SKIES. LESS
OF ONE AND MORE OF ANOTHER WOULD ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OR A
CLOUDY AND SOMEWHAT MILD NIGHT. WENT MIDDLE OF THE ROAD ON FORECAST
FROM MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GTLKS AREA AND A COLD FRONT CROSSES
OHVLY EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPS WERE MILD AHEAD OF IT AND THE PRECIP
SHOULD END BEFORE ENOUGH COLD AIR FILTERS IN TO SUPPORT A CHANGE IN
PTYPE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS TO KEEP A COLD AIRMASS OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY ON TUES AND OVERNIGHT...BUT I KEPT FCST DRY SINCE THESE
WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. HIGH SETTLES INTO OHVLY WED NIGHT...
ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY FOR THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AND THEN AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST
WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...CONIGLIO
