FXUS62 KMLB 150919
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
419 AM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY FOR
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO BE REPORTED
AT MULTIPLE OBSERVING LOCATIONS...MAINLY FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD AND
OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD TO LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTY. THIS AREA OF
DENSE FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TOWARD SUNSET AS LIGHT WINDS AND
FURTHER SATURATION CONTINUE. HOWEVER A DEVELOPING BAND OF CLOUDS HAS
BEGUN TO PUSH NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTIES...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS FROM ANY FURTHER
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN THESE
COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
TODAY...DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE FOR MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BREAK UP
BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NORTHWARD
INTO THE TREASURE COAST AREA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THIS REGION INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER LOCATIONS IN ECFL SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. AS
STRATUS/FOG FINALLY BREAK UP LATER TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE LOW 80S.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD REACH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA
TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES SHOULD NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
FORMATION...HOWEVER LINGERING CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION MAY BE ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY DENSE FOG FROM FORMING IN THIS REGION AS WELL.
WED-THURS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH CWA WED
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS S FL. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP
BEHIND THE FRONT AND VEER TO EASTERLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH BRIDGES THE BOUNDARY. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT LOW
END CHC POPS WED WITH FRONT...THEN SLGT CHC N/CHC S FOR WED NIGHT
AND THURS. MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM LOWER 70S N TO NR 80 S WED...THEN
UPR 60S N TO UPPER 70S S ON THURS. MORN LOWS THURS RANGING FROM MID
50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THUR NITE-FRI...LATEST RUNS OF ECMWF/GFS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WRT TIMING OF GULF LOW SPUN UP BY SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE. WARM FRONT
EXPECTED TO PUSH BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE LOW
PASSES ACROSS N-C PENINSULA ON FRI. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP A BIT TO
GOOD CHC THURS NITE AND GOOD CHC/LIKELY WITH A THUNDER MENTION ADDED
IN FOR FRI AND HELD ON TO LOW POPS FOR FRI NITE. POPS AND FAVORED
THUNDER AREAS WILL LIKELY NEED SOME FINE TUNING AS THE SYSTEM GETS
CLOSER. DECENT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING
U/L SUBTROPICAL JET GIVE SOME CONCERN FOR ENHANCEMENT TO STORM
STRENGTH WHICH WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH LATER RUNS.
SAT-TUE...LOW CENTER WILL BE EAST OF THE PENINSULA SAT MORNING WITH
UPPER TROF DEEPENING INTO THE SE STATES AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. COOL AIR MASS WILL BE REINFORCED EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO BASE OF LONG WAVE TROF
OVER EASTERN U.S. SOME LINGERING JETSTREAM CLOUDINESS CAN BE
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. MAXES WILL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
MID 70S SOUTH ON SAT...THEN ON SUN/MON MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
GET OUT OF THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT
MINS INTO SUN MORN RANGING FROM NR 40 NRN INTERIOR TO LOWER 50S
SOUTHERN COASTAL...THEN MINS MON MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST...AND JUST A FEW DEGREES
WARMER NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN AREA OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ECFL TAF SITES THRU 14Z. SHOULD THEN SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 16Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. CONDS WILL NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN TERMINALS
BUT MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR DURING THE EVENING HOURS IN ANY
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG.
&&
.MARINE...DBC AND SCRIPPS BUOYS EAST OF CANAVERAL AREA ARE NOT
REPORTING.
TODAY/TONIGHT...AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO BREAK UP LATER IN THE
DAY. WINDS WILL EXIST OUT OF THE S/SE AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS TODAY
WITH EAST SWELLS KEEPING SEAS UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE
NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS TOWARD SUNRISE.
WED-SAT...NE WIND SURGE OCCURING NEAR SUNRISE WED WITH SEAS BUILDING
IN RESPONSE. ANTICIPATE SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE OFFSHORE
WATERS/CAUTIONS NEAR THE COAST FOR WED. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
INTO THURS AS WINDS VEER EASTERLY. MAY BE A BRIEF/MODEST IMPROVEMENT
THURS NITE AND FRI BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO NWLY AND INCREASE
AGAIN SAT WITH LOW CROSSING THE PENINSULA INTO ATLANTIC AND FRONT
PUSHING BACK SOUTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 81 64 72 57 / 10 20 30 20
MCO 81 63 75 59 / 10 20 30 20
MLB 81 64 77 64 / 10 10 30 30
VRB 81 64 78 66 / 20 10 30 30
LEE 81 61 73 55 / 10 20 30 20
SFB 81 64 74 59 / 10 20 30 20
ORL 81 63 75 59 / 10 20 30 20
FPR 82 63 79 66 / 20 10 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....GLITTO
