FXUS63 KEAX 091022
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

VIGOROUS WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT IS SLOWLY PUSHING ITS WAY EAST. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOW SEEING ONLY LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES AS STRONGER DYNAMICAL FORCING IS LIFTING NORTH OF
THE CWA. MAIN CONCERN NOW IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW AS
THE SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT NEARS THE GREAT LAKES...TIGHTENING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE
SEEN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS MEET BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO FAR WITH SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS APPROACHING BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAIN STRONG AND
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL CERTAINLY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING. WILL THEREFORE LET THE CURRENT HEADLINES RIDE FOR NOW AND
MONITOR WINDS/VIS FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS BEFORE MAKING A DECISION
ON ANY EXTENSIONS/CHANGES.

BITTERLY COLD AND RAW DAY EXPECTED AS BRISK WINDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE DAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
THE DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AS STRONG CAA PERSISTS. IN ADDITION AS THE UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL EAST...SOME LINGERING FLURRIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

BY TONIGHT WITH THE ALREADY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE
LINE. NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE A SNOW PACK EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET BELOW ZERO
INTO AT LEAST THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL CREATE WIND CHILL
PROBLEMS OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH FOR
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WIND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND CHILL
VALUES FALLING BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...POSSIBLY AS LOW AS
-15 TO -20 ACROSS THE SNOW PACK AREAS. MAY NEED WIND CHILL
HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT BUT WILL LET LATER SHIFTS HANDLE THIS...LETTING
CURRENT HEADLINES RUN ITS COURSE.

OTHERWISE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ONCE THE LINGERING FLURRIES END TODAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY
OVER SNOW PACKED AREAS. NOT CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 3.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WRAP AROUND AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE 
TERMINALS INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS WITH IFR VISIBILITIES/MVFR 
CEILINGS. THE STORM SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO WIND UP AND THE 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL YIELD VERY STRONG/GUSTY WNW 
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE 
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SCOUR OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUD 
COVER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING. MAY SEE CLOUDS 
SCATTER OUT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE MORNING BUT A MVFR  
STRATOCU DECK SHOULD QUICKLY FILL BACK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. 
WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AS SUNSET APPROACHES AND SKIES CLEAR.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     MOZ023>025-029>033-037>039.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     MOZ021-022-028.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     KSZ104-105.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     KSZ025-103.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ102.

&&

$$