FXUS64 KHUN 241132 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
531 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND SPORADIC MAINLY -SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTN...ALTHOUGH SRLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER
30KTS LIKELY DURING THE AFTN. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAIN BULK OF RA/SHRA
IN ASSOC W/CDFNT TO BEGIN AFFECTING TERMINALS BY ~25/02Z. IFR
VIS/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED IN +SHRA...ALTHOUGH LOWER VIS POSSIBLE IN
ISOLD +TSRA. NON-CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP AS STRONG
SRLY LOW-LVL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ARND 22-23Z. WIND
SHEAR WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE CDNT PASSAGE AFTER ABOUT 25/07Z. 

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE UPPER LOW NOW
OVER WRN TX WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. ATTM THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
OVER LA/AR/MO/SRN IL.

TODAY...LOWERED POPS AND TOOK OUT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING AS NAM/GFS
BOTH SHOW THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL NOT BEGIN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
UNTIL ARND 00Z. NO SVR WX EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...LI/CAPE VALUES ARE STILL VERY WEAK BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS ARND 1000 M2/S2. 8H WINDS ARE PROGGED TO BE UP TO 80 KTS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER IF WE
GET ANY TSRA COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. WILL GO WITH HEAVY RAIN
WORDING BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ALSO WITH ANY TSRA COULD SEE SOME WIND DAMAGE AS STRONG
WINDS ARE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SFC. EVEN THE GRADIENT WINDS (WITH
GUSTS ARND 45 MPH) COULD DO DAMAGE...AS TREES COULD BE KNOCKED
DOWN DUE TO A WET GROUND. THE UPPER LOW WILL PICK UP SPEED AND
MOVE NE OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WITH RECENT HEAVY RAIN/WET GROUND/LOCAL RIVERS AT HIGH
LEVELS...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW. ALSO WILL KEEP
WIND ADVISORY.

FRIDAY MRNG...ATMOSPHERE DRYS OUT BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THAT IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR FLURRIES OVER NW AL WITH LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE ELSEWHERE. BY FRIDAY AFTN PCPN WILL BE OVER BUT
LOW CLOUDS HANG ON.

REST OF FCST...RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND DRY. WEDNESDAY GFS SHOWS
GULF LOW MAY BRING SOME PCPN TO OUR CWA BUT WITH GOOD N/NW FLOW...
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT PCPN.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...JACKSON...
     LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MARSHALL...
     MORGAN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...
     JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
     MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KDW
DISCUSSION...07