FXUS63 KGLD 271730
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
.DISCUSSION...
200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...SO WITHOUT DOWNSLOPE
WARMING DON'T THINK ANY RECORDS WILL BE REACHED. USING 925MB BIASES
FROM YESTERDAY EXPECTING MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. FROPA WILL BE UNEVENTFUL
AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO RATHER WEAK QG FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND EVEN WEAKER UPSLOPE WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MODEL QPF LOOKS
OVERDONE...AND EVEN THEN IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THE FORCING IS BASICALLY DONE BY 18Z SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS BEHIND THE PROGRESSIVE WAVE. PLAN ON LOWERING POPS AND
RESTRICTING THEM TO SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR NORTH TO SOUTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE NOSES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AT SURFACE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND AND RAISED MAXES. NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY WITH SURFACE FRONT
EASING INTO THE CWA. LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL DETERMINE
MAXES...AND CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE IT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PREFRONTAL WARMING COULD RESULT IN MUCH
WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN ADVERTISED...BUT AGAIN TIMING FRONT AT THIS
TIME RANGE NOT EASY SO WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES JUST A TAD FOR NOW.
NO CHANGES MADE AFTER TUESDAY.
024
&&
.AVIATION...
1029 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH COLD
FRONT ARRVING AROUND 10Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.
JRM
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&
$$
