FXUS63 KMKX 110939
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CONFIDENCE: HIGH

WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE 
COUNTRY AND A DECENT SNOW PACK IN THE MIDWEST...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR 
SKIES AND COOL TEMPS. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN THEY 
WERE YESTERDAY. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE RISE TODAY...WARMING 6C. 
DESPITE CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 
ZERO AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO THE WAA. NO PRECIP WITH THIS WAA 
PATTERN AS ATMOSPHERE IS TOO DRY. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO -4C BY 00Z SUN 
AND HIGHS ON SAT SHOULD BE IN THE 20S!

.SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

A DECENT 500MB SHORT WAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE MIDWEST SAT 
NIGHT...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO SOUTHERN WI. 
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HIGH RH AND MIXING RATIO AROUND 3G/KG SUPPORT 
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT MAY TAKE A 
BIT OF TIME TO FOR PRECIP TO SATURATE ALL THE WAY DOWN...SO KEPT CHC 
POPS BEFORE 06Z AND LIKELY OVER THE EAST AFTER 06Z. 

PRECIP TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE. IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 
SNOW EARLY IN THE EVENT. NAM REMAINS WARMER THAN GFS AND ECMWF BUT 
KEEPS ALL BUT FAR SE CORNER OF CWA BELOW 0C AT 850MB. THEN BUFKIT 
MODEL SNDGS SHOW UPPER LEVELS DRYING OUT. THIS WOULD MEAN NO PRECIP 
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS PRESENT IN THE CLOUD. WENT 
WITH ALL SNOW BEFORE 06Z AND THEN SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 
06Z. 

THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA SUN MORNING...SO KEPT 
CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS...DRYING OUT SUN AFTERNOON. 

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ANOTHER LOW IS PROGGED TO TREK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUN NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY...WITH THE CENTER GOING RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN WI. PRECIP 
TYPE IS DEFINITELY AN ISSUE WITH THE WARM SECTOR IN FAR SOUTHERN WI. 
KEPT RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH. POPS STILL IN THE 
CHC CATEGORY SINCE WE WILL BE SO CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER. 

EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

COLD AIR COMES BACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE 
WEEK. 850MB TEMPS HINTING AT ANOTHER COLD SNAP.

&&

.AVIATION...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SHIFT EWD 
ACROSS SRN WI IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WLY WINDS WILL TURN SLY 
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES AWAY. A COLD AND 
DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS. THERE 
IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFT 06Z TNT AS A 
SLY LOW LEVEL JET MAY INCREASE TO 40 KTS OVER THE AREA. 

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. 
BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER THE UNSTABLE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN 
WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL WEAKEN 
THIS EVENING WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE 
LAKE. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...13/MRC
AVIATION/MARINE...20/MG