FXUS61 KGYX 270828
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
328 AM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SOUTH OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER COASTAL STORM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A STG COASTAL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE BENCHMARK OF 40N/70W
WAS DEEPENING RAPIDLY AND MOVING NWD...XPLOSIVE DVLPMNT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS IT HEADS N INTO THE GOM. STG UVV WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A STG NEG TILTED TROF MOVES
OFF THE E COAST AND HELPS DEVELOP A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT
EVENTUALLY CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW BY TNGT. SOME TSTMS ARE PSBL
THIS MRNG AS HGTS BEGIN TO CRASH FROM THE W. QPF AMTS OF 1.5-3
INCHES SHOULD BE A GOOD BET FOR TDY THRU TNGT WHICH IS ABV
GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A VERY NICE AREA OF CONVECTION DVLPG
OVER DELMARVA AND THIS WILL ROTATE NWD RAPDILY THIS MRNG AS TRAJS
SUGGEST. PTYPE TDY SHOULD BE RAIN OVER ALL AREAS BUT LATE IN THE
AFTN SOME CHNGOVER MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TRRN IN NRN AND WRN
NH. OVERALL GUID TEMPS WERE NOT BAD FOR TDY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
HAVE ISSUED WINTER WX ADVSRYS FOR THE WRN MTNS OF ME AND NRN/WRN
NH FOR TNGT THRU SAT MRNG AS ACCUMS OF SNOW EXPECTED CERTAINLY ABV
1000 FT WHICH MAY ACCUM OVER AN 18 HR (00Z SAT-18Z SAT) PERIOD OF
GENERALLY 3-6 INCHES BUT AS MUCH AS 10 INCHES IN SOME OF THE HIER
ELEVS ABV ABOUT 2000 FT. A NICE COMMA HEAD SHOULD DVLP TNGT
SOMEWHERE OVR NRN NH/WRN ME AND NERN VT WHICH MAY ENHANCE FURTHER
SNOWFALL RATES OVER THE HIER TRRN AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
ELSEWHERE A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED TNGT THAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF LATE AS WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME DOWNSLOPING WNWLY AND GUSTY.
STAYED CLOSE TO MAV TEMPS FOR LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE PULLING NE AND WILL STALL
BRIEFLY NEAR THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES QUICKLY EAST. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN ON FRIDAY. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY FOR
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...WITH ANOTHER INCH TO INCH AND A HALF
OF SNOW POSSIBLE. GALE WARNINGS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. IN ADDITION...A WIND ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ENSURE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE
MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE WEEKEND SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER QUEBEC...SENDING A
COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...COLD AIR WILL BE
IN PLACE AND EXPECT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OVER MOST OF THE CWA. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR KEEPS HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER
40S TUESDAY. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS LOOK CHILLY...BUT
READINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THEY HAVE BEEN OF LATE.
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS
ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE NEXT COASTAL LOW APPROACHES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...IFR TO LIFR CONDS EXPECTED IN RAIN
TODAY. SOME TSTMS ARE PSBL THIS MRNG BUT WERE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAFS SINCE THEY WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD. TONIGHT THE PCPN WILL
CHG TO SNOW IN THE MTNS OF WRN ME AND NRN NH AS WELL AS THE HILLS
IN WRN NH. KLEB MAY SEE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SOMETIME IN THE EVNG
AS COLDER AIR WORKS FROM W-E OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN AND FOG SAT WITH SNOW AT KLEB...
BECOMING VFR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MON AND TUE
WILL FORCE CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR OR LOWER.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...AS DEEPENING LOW PRES NEAR
40N/70W AT THIS TIME MOVES N CONSIDERABLE FURTHER DEEPENING IS
EXPECTED WITH A STG PRES GRADIENT IN ITS ADVANCE TO RESULT...THUS
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS MORNING AND THEN DIMINISH
AS THE LOW PASSES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTN. TONIGHT THE
CENTER OF THE STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES AND A STRONG WNWLY
WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THUS THE GALE WARNINGS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM...GALE WARNINGS THRU SAT 18Z AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THRU SAT EVENING AS SFC LOW REMAINS NEARBY. THEREAFTER SCA
PROBABLE FOR SUN. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUN NIGHT...WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA MON AND TUE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD
FRONT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR NHZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NHZ005-007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
$$
MARINE/HANES
