FXUS62 KJAX 091449
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EST WED DEC 9 2009

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH BREEZY TO 
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS...

.SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW. 
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND 
BECOME MORE E/W ORIENTED AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY ENE. 
ATMOSPHERE OVER NE FL AND EXTREME SE CONTINUES FAIRLY STABLE WITH 
CAPES 200-500 J/KG AND CINS OF 50 TO 120 J/KG. WILL CONTINUE TO 
MONITOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES OUR W ZONES. FURTHER 
DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA WITH SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD 
COVER. 

WINDS HAVE BEGUN MIXING TO THE SFC OVER THE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 
AROUND 25 MPH SO FAR. MAY BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LAKE WIND CRITERIA 
AS GRADIENT WEAKENS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LET THE ADVISORY 
STAND. MAY BACK OFF ON POPS ABOUT 10 PERCENT IN THE GRID/ZFP UPDATE. 
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...IN AND OUT MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF 
THE MORNING SO A FEW UPDATES MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY. WILL CONTINUE 
VCTS FOR NOW AS REDEVELOPMENT OF MORE THAN ISOLATED TSTMS IS NOT A 
CERTAINTY THIS AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH CAUTION CRITERIA NEAR 
SHORE AND ADVISORY CRITERIA OFFSHORE. FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL 
     GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA 
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

CARROLL/WOLF/PRESNALL