FXUS64 KMRX 252004
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2009

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH DRIER AND 
COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND IT. WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST 
WITH FROPA...WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE WINDY CONDITIONS IN 
THE MOUNTAINS AND SW VA BY 4 PM. ALTHOUGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE 
FALLING WITH THE FROPA...THERE IS A LAYER OF MOISTURE BEHIND THE 
FRONT THAT WILL KEEP OVERCAST CLOUDS IN THROUGH THE EVENING. 
PROJECTING THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS NOW OVER MS BRINGS CLEARING 
INTO THE CHATTANOOGA AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY 
CLEAR OVERNIGHT FROM SW TO NE AND WINDS WILL DIMINSH IN THE SAME 
WAY...SO THE LOWEST TEMPS TONIGHT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WHERE 
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATEST. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM 
MOS SOUTH AND THE WARMER GFS MOS NORTH. NORTHEAST SECTIONS SHOULD BE 
MOSTLY CLEAR BY SUNRISE. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...ASIDE 
FROM SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LOW STARTS OUT OVER WI SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVES SLOWLY ESE
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING. THE CLOUDS AND ENERGY
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SWING AROUND THE
PARENT UPPER LOW EARLY SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE SNOW IN THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND SW VA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE RAIN AND
SNOW DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY. THE UPPER LOW BROADENS OUT INTO
A TROUGH AND MOVES TO THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT TUESDAY WILL PROVIDE A DRY MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BRING ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AND YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR SEASONAL SUNDAY BUT COLDER
MONDAY WITH CLOUDS AND GREAT LAKES SYSTEM MOVING BY. THEN WARMING
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...
     JOHNSON...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST CARTER...
     SOUTHEAST GREENE...UNICOI.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...WASHINGTON...WISE.

&&

$$

DGS/TD