FXUS63 KFGF 090244
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
844 PM CST TUE DEC 8 2009

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED WIND
CHILLS. OVERALL...CURRENT GRID SET LOOKS GOOD ALTHOUGH LOW AND
NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES ARE COLDER...AND THE VALLEY CITY AREA
WARMER...THAN PREV FORECAST SUGGESTED. AFTER ADJUSTING TEMPS IN
THIS AREA AND BLENDING IN RUC WINDS...WHICH HAVE A DECENT HANDLE
ON THE CURRENT WIND FIELD...WIND CHILLS IN LOW AND NORTHERN
BELTRAMI DROPPED INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA RANGE...ROUGHLY 25 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW ZERO. MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH POWERFUL CENTRAL
PLAINS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT IN...SO TEMPS IN THIS REGION
COULD BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN. PREFER TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE DECIDING TO ADD THESE COUNTIES TO CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE WILL DO SO.

&&

.AVIATION...
BJI WILL BE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE EVENING AS THEY DROPPED TO
IFR CONDS MUCH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND RECENTLY SUDDENLY
SCATTERED OUT...WHICH IS SUSPECT. ELECT TO CONTINUE PREDOMINANTLY
IFR CONDS AS CENTRAL PLAINS LOW MOVES INTO WISCONSIN AND CIGS
ACROSS MN SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER. EXPECT FAR TO GO TO MVFR LATER
IN THE NIGHT. TVF...GFK...AND DVL HAVE A REASONABLE CHANCE OF
STAYING VFR THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER TWO COULD
SEE BRIEF PDS OF MVFR CIGS. NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP
OVERNIGHT...AND FAR AND BJI COULD SEE PDS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
BLSN. OVERALL NOT A GOOD EVENING TO FLY ACROSS MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR NDZ053.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-007.

&&

$$
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