FXUS61 KLWX 280206 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
906 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST VORT LOBE ROTATING SEWD TOWARD MASON/DIXON LINE THIS
EVE...BUT DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHUD HOLD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT TO
A FEW SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME NRN VA...NRN MD...AND ERN
WV THRU 6Z. THEREAFTER...WAVE SLIDES E OF AREA.
UPSLOPE SNOW REGIONS ACROSS WRN ZONES HAVE HAD LITTLE SNOW OVER
LAST FEW HOURS...AND WITH WINDS BCMG MORE WLY...MOISTURE FROM
GREAT LAKES WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
BE DROPPED. STILL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS XPCD OVNGT...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION UNDER ONE INCH.
NO OVERALL CHANGES TO FCST TOWARD MORNING...AS BREEZY AND COLDER
CONDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER BREEZY DAY /THO A TOUCH LESS THAN TODAY/ A FAIRLY
QUIET DAY. THE UPSLOPE SNOW WILL DISSIPATE TO FLURRIES INTO THE
PRE-DAWN HRS AND END BY LATE MRNG. SKIES WILL GENERALLY CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THO TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM-UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FROM TODAY/S MAXIMA. BROAD SFC HIGH WILL SET-UP OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH...W/ THE NRN EDGE OF THE HIGH SPILLING INTO THE MID ATLC
ON SAT. THE GUSTY WILL STILL MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH COLDER THAN
THE AMBIENT TEMP TOMORROW.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO APPROACH/MOVE THROUGH FROM THE WEST MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...REDUCING DURING THE
EVENING.
LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIP MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GULF COAST WEDNESDAY MOVING
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS OFF THE COAST WHILE
THE ECMWF IS INLAND. SO TRACK AND ALSO TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL NEED
TO BE RESOLVED IN FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF SUCH A
SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE CWA WITH SOME RAIN DURING THE
MID WEEK TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY UPSLOPE PRECIP LATE IN
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCT/BKN 4-6FKT DECK OVER ALL BUT CHO WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY ERODE FROM S TO N ACRS THE AREA. NW
WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS SHUD CONT OVNGT AND THRU MID AFTN SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY
THAT MAY PRODUCE MVFR SHOWERS. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND THE FRONT
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
GALE WARNING RMNS IN EFFECT THRU THE OVNGT. SOLID GALE CONDS
ACROSS MD CHESAPEAKE...WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS TO 35 KT OVR THE
TIDAL POTOMAC. CAA AND PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD DIMINISH ENUF TO
KEEP WINDS BELOW 30 KT SAT...BUT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS SUNDAY AND IS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS MAY SETTLED IN BEHIND
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530>533-535>542.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ534-
543.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GMS/PELOQUIN
