FXUS65 KPUB 021208
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
508 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009
.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
...SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS...
CURRENTLY...RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS
MORNING OVER EL PASO...PUEBLO EASTWARD INTO KIOWA COUNTIES WITH
LIGHT SNOW REPORTED IN LOCAL OBSERVATIONS AND AREA WEB CAMS.
COLD UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN INITIAL WAVE MOVING SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING INTO
COLORADO. SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE MID LEVEL FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LEAD WAVE AS IT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE REGION. SNOWFALL WILL
BE HEAVIEST THIS MORNING OVER TELLER COUNTY AND THE PALMER DIVIDE
WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL
FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO ALTHOUGH FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
BANDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH EXCEPT FOR TELLER COUNTY AND THE
PALMER DIVIDE WHERE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TONIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
CANADIAN HAVE COME IN WETTER FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HAVE TRENDED
WITH THE 06Z NAM AND 03Z MM5 SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT. FLOW TURNS
UPSLOPE THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS A SECONDARY VORT MAX
DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. COLD AIR WILL HAVE ADVECTED
SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY THIS TIME WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS
-18 TO -20C. GFS AND NAM ALSO DEVELOP A 700 MB LOW OVER SOUTHWEST
COLORADO. WHILE UPSLOPE FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THE
SURFACE TO 700 MB DEPTH AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THAT
LAYER WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH CONDITIONS. THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCED
SNOWFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
FOLLOWED THE MM5 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SOLUTIONS WHICH HAS HANDLED
PREVIOUS STORMS WELL. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE AND ALONG THE
RATON RIDGE. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINNING THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TOTAL 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER
THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE LEE
SLOPES AND RATON RIDGE THROUGH TONIGHT. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST
ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TONIGHT WHILE LESS THAN
AN INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE 06Z NAM WANTS TO
PRODUCE A SECONDARY BAND OF SNOWFALL OVER EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT
WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS IN THAT
REGION...HOWEVER THE MM5 AND GFS KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. MOZLEY
.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE 06Z RUN OF THE NAM CAME IN WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PCPN FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PCPN/SNOW AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SRN SANGRES AND
WETS...THE SE FOOTHILLS...EVEN FOR PUEBLO COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF
EL PASO COUNTY IN THE MORNING HRS. WL ADJUST SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG
THE SRN MTS AND FOOTHILLS TO BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE 00Z AND
06Z RUNS OF THE NAM. AS THE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD
THU AFTERNOON...PCPN CHANCE WANE OVR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT
GOOD MSTR AND CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE SRN SANGRES...WETS
AND SE FOOTHILLS WL MEAN CONTINUED HIGH SNOW CHANCES AND
ACCUMULATIONS. AS FOR PUEBLO AND PORTIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY...WL
KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS THU MORNING LOWER THAN WHAT THE NAM IS PRINTING
OUT...BUT IF THE 12Z RUN COMES IN LIKE THE 06Z RUN THESE AMOUNTS
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED. TEMPS WL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
TO MID 20S OVR THE SE PLAINS AND 20S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TEMPS THU NIGHT WL BE QUITE COLD...WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS OVR
THE SE PLAINS AND BELOW ZERO READINGS OVR THE REST OF THE CWA.
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT PCPN CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SE
MTS AND ADJACENT AREAS IN THE EVENING HOURS...AND THEN DECREASING
OR ENDING BY FRI MORNING. THEN FOR FRI...COLD AND DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA. TEMPS DO NOT LOOK LIKE THEY WL WARM
ALL THAT MUCH AND SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S OVR
THE SE PLAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY AND UPR ARKANSAS VALLEY.
SAT A NEW UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE DAKOTAS...ACRS
WY...SRN ID AND BACK INTO NRN CA. THEN SAT NIGHT THE GFS DEVELOPS
A CLOSED LOW OVR NERN NV AND A FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACRS THE SERN CO
PLAINS. THE GFS KEEPS THE CWA DRY SAT AND SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z RUN OF THE GFS HAD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE SAT NIGHT...SO WL KEEP THAT IN THE
FORECAST. SAT IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD GET A BIT WARMER...AROUND
40 FOR HIGHS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES THEN THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND HAVE DECIDED NOT
TO MAKE CHANGES BEYOND SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS GENERALLY AGREE
PCPN-WISE FOR SUN WITH POSSIBLY HAVING GOOD CHANCE FOR PCPN OVR
THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS AND SOME PCPN ALSO SPREADING INTO THE PIKES
PEAK REGION AND SE MTS...BUT KEEPING MOST OF THE SE PLAINS DRY.
GENERALLY IT LOOKS UNSETTLED THEN FOR MON AND TUE WITH UPR JET
OVR THE AREA AND PROBABLY AT LEAST SOME SNOW CHANCES OVR THE MTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
KALS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION
REMAINING EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE. SNOW AND CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SLV TONIGHT PRODUCING
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS...BUT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITE.
KCOS...LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE TERMINAL. A BAND OF SNOW HAS
BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH BETWEEN DENVER AND KCOS AND WILL IMPACT THE
AIRPORT 13Z-15Z WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BEEN
GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS AT THE TERMINAL WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15Z. EXPECT SNOW TO
DECREASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE AREA IS BETWEEN
WAVES. SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
KPUB...BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINAL PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITIES. EXPECT THE BAND OF SNOW TO CONTINUE
PROGRESSING SOUTH CLEARING AREA BY 1330Z. LESS THAN ONE INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON RUNWAYS. SNOW WILL PICK UP AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOZLEY
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ074-075-079-080-087-088.
&&
$$
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