FXUS65 KFGZ 302135
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT COOL TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND 
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. MORE UNSETTLED 
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
&&

.DISCUSSION...A CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MEXICAN 
STATE OF SONORA. MOISTURE SWINGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING 
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO ABOUT HAPPY JACK. 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.

THE LOW WILL SLOWLY FILL AND DRIFT EASTWARD TO CENTRAL TEXAS BY 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN ARIZONA IN COOL...DRY 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN 
GREAT PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING CREATING A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC 
FLOW ACROSS THE WEST. SOME SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES WILL SWING 
PAST NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THOUGH WITH LITTLE 
CHANCE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION.

WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER ARIZONA PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY IN ALL 
MODEL SOLUTIONS...UPSTREAM FEATURES ARE SURPRISINGLY DIVERGENT. FOR 
NOW...HAVE PAINTED IN ELEVATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND. EXPECT REFINEMENT AS A CONSISTENT SOLUTION EMERGES. &&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 02Z TUES...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
WILL KEEP UPSLOPE BKN STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE 
WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND LITTLE PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE 
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...WITH LCL TRRN OBSCD AND MVFR CIGS ABV 6K 
FEET. MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE WDLY SCT -SHSN AND 
MVFR CONDITIONS AND TRRN OBSCD. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6K FT. OUTSIDE OF 
THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL 
AREAS TIL 01Z TUES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-20KT... GUSTS TO 30KT 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BECMG LCL TIL 06Z AT KFGZ... KGCN... KPRC 
AND DOWN SLOPE AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HIGH TRRN.  

KGCN METAR OBS ARE UNAVAILABLE...SVC TECH ON SITE. KGCN TAF IS AMD 
NOT SKED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&
$$

PUBLIC..................HOWARD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.