FXUS62 KTBW 250202
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 PM EST THU DEC 24 2009
.UPDATE...OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT. STORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS ENERGY
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERE OUT AHEAD OF LINE NOT
QUITE AS UNSTABLE. BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS GEORGIA AND INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
AND THEREFORE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS VERY MINIMAL AT
THIS TIME WITH THE ONLY AREA THAT COULD HAVE A POSSIBLE THREAT
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST LATE TONIGHT. NO
MATTER WHAT THOUGH IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. AT THE CURRENT SPEED THE LINE OF CONVECTION...OR WHAT
IS LEFT OF IT...SHOULD MAKE IT TO LEVY COUNTY AROUND 10Z...THE
TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 12Z...AND THE FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 16Z.
COLD FRONT IS A FEW HOURS BEHIND THIS LINE AND SHOULD THEREFORE
SEE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN
GENERAL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO EVENING
UPDATE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...EXTENDED PERIODS OF BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE SHOWERS BY THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...FIRST OVER TPA...PIE AND SRQ AROUND 10-14Z...THEN OVER
FMY AND RSW BY LATE MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
WILL AGAIN AFFECT THE TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH LATER
TONIGHT AND THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND REMAIN
RATHER BREEZY INTO SATURDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MAINLY FOR SEAS AS THEY WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE MARINE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 66 75 52 65 / 50 60 20 20
FMY 65 78 56 70 / 40 60 20 30
GIF 64 75 50 66 / 50 60 20 20
SRQ 65 75 51 66 / 50 60 20 20
BKV 64 72 44 65 / 60 60 10 20
SPG 66 73 52 65 / 50 60 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
UDPATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...22/REYNES
