FXUS65 KABQ 142204
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
304 PM MST MON DEC 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER DISTURBANCE TO MARCH ACROSS THE S THIRD OF FCST AREA TONIGHT
AND AS OF THIS WRITING SOME LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE INTENSITY
PCPN ACROSS S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA...MAINLY SOCORRO
AND LINCOLN COUNTIES...AND BEGINNING TO DVLP ACROSS E CENTRAL
ZONES. FOR THE MOST PART...WHILE SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AS THE
EVENING PRGRESSES...PCPN WILL BE PREDOMINANTELY LIQUID BELOW 7000
OR 7500 FEET THROUGH ROUGHLY MID EVENING. THUS NOT EXPECTING
ADVISORY THRESHOLD SNOWFALL ACROSS ANY PART OF THE CWA. NEXT SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SITUATION CLOSELY FOR ANY UNEXPECTED FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER UNLIKELY IT APPEARS AS OF
MID AFTN. ALSO WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO SOME W CENTRAL AND NW
ZONES DUE TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...STRONG INVERSION POTENTIAL AND
THE LONG NIGHT LENGTH WE NOW ARE EXPERIENCING. SOME RESIDUAL VERY
LOW LVL MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM LAST FEATURE. AFTER THIS SYSTEM
GOES BYE BYE...TREND WILL BE TOWARD A MINOR TO MODERATE WARMUP
WITH DRY WX INTO THU AND PROBABLY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT COOLING.
EURO MODEL MORE BULLISH WITH A SHARPER WAVE COMING BY TO THE NE OF
THE STATE...BUT LATEST RUN HAS BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY FROM EARLIER
PCPN COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS. WILL STAY WITH CURRENTLY INHERITED
DRIER FCST. BACK TO ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT STILL MAINLY
DRY.
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&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND VFR RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
THRU 06Z. MT OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE MANZANO AND SACRAMENTO
MTS DURING THIS PERIOD. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER...
EXCLUDING THE WRN VALLEYS WHERE LIFR FOG COULD DEVELOP. PRIME SITES
THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE KFMN AND KGUP...MAINLY BETWEEN 10Z AND
16Z ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. DPORTER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE POOR VENTILATION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM...HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WILL IMPACT THE SRN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...ANTICIPATE
CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE STATE. EXCELLENT RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WEST.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK AS
HEIGHTS INCREASE. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND POOR VENTILATION RATES. OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EITHER CLIP OR DIRECTLY IMPACT THE LAND
OF ENCHANTMENT BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE GFS SUGGESTS GENERAL
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FRONT IMPACTING THE ERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...
THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST/DEEPER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...
OFFERING A BOUT OF PRECIPITATION AND MUCH COLDER READINGS. AT THIS
TIME...THE PACKAGE SIDES CLOSER TO THE GFS BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WITH THE GFS
BEING WARMER BENEATH A RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF IS COLDER AND FURTHER
WEST WITH THIS AXIS.
DPORTER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 15 39 16 44 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 2 39 2 45 / 5 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 5 40 11 45 / 5 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 7 43 9 48 / 5 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 11 44 14 49 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 8 43 8 47 / 5 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 12 46 12 50 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 22 55 25 57 / 20 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 1 36 -4 41 / 5 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 15 40 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 16 45 18 51 / 5 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 2 39 -3 45 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 0 37 10 43 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... -1 39 4 45 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 0 40 4 45 / 5 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 8 47 16 52 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 16 41 15 46 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 18 41 16 46 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 25 46 24 50 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 27 46 26 50 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 20 48 25 52 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 22 48 23 52 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 23 50 24 54 / 5 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 25 47 22 51 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 24 51 24 55 / 20 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 14 43 22 47 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 14 45 21 50 / 5 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 19 41 20 46 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 24 48 25 53 / 40 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 29 53 28 57 / 40 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 28 50 30 53 / 40 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 9 45 15 51 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 10 46 14 52 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 15 45 20 52 / 5 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 22 49 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 20 48 22 55 / 5 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 22 53 24 60 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 22 55 25 61 / 20 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 22 52 25 60 / 10 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 26 53 27 61 / 40 5 0 0
PORTALES........................ 22 54 25 62 / 30 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 23 54 24 61 / 40 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 32 54 27 61 / 30 5 0 0
PICACHO......................... 33 58 23 63 / 40 5 0 0
ELK............................. 31 55 27 59 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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