FXUS65 KFGZ 291042
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST SUN NOV 29 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NORTHERN 
ARIZONA THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY 
RAIN...COLD TEMPERATURES...AND BRISK EAST WINDS. THIS STORM WILL 
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF ARIZONA BY TUESDAY...WITH DRY AND SEASONAL 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A VERY CHALLENGING SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS 
MODELS STRUGGLE WITH HOW TO HANDLE MOISTURE CIRCULATING AROUND A 
CUT-OFF LOW NEAR YUMA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS LOW DROPPING SOUTH 
TODAY AND THEN MEANDERING EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT 
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE...THEN SLOWLY...AND WE MEAN 
SLOWLY...DECREASING IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

CURRENTLY...ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED NORTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF WITH 
SPOTTY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE 
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH NEARLY ZERO ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
EASTERN RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS. WE EXPECT THINGS TO CHANGE AS WE 
MOVE THROUGH THE DAY...AS A WRAP-AROUND BAND SETS UP IN THE 
EASTERLIES. MODELS HAVE PLACED THIS BAND NEARLY EVERYWHERE FOR THE 
LAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION ALONG I-40 AND 
INTO FLAGSTAFF LATER TODAY. THIS SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE THAN THE 
NORTHERN SOLUTIONS...DUE TO THE LOW CENTER BEING SEVERAL HUNDRED 
MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER BY THIS AFTERNOON. 

POPS/QPF HAVE BEEN CONCENTRATED IN THIS CORRIDOR...WITH THE WESTERN 
RIM LIKELY SEEING SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW TODAY.

MOISTURE AND COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH 
DYNAMICS FADING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL MEAN ANY REMAINING 
POPS WILL LINGER OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY ENDING TUESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS HAVE 
DIFFERED WILDLY ON A POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICAL TAP BY NEXT WEEKEND. WE 
HAVE GONE LARGELY DRY UNTIL THEN...AND MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE
AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD BKN-OVC CIGS FROM 2K-5K 
FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/SHSN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA 
TODAY. THE MOST ACTIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH 
OF A LINE FROM SUPAI-SEDONA-PAYSON...WITH DECREASING COVERAGE 
THROUGH SOUTHWEST YAVAPAI COUNTY. AFT 02Z SUN...PRECIPITATION 
COVERAGE DECREASING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER PRODUCING 
MVFR CIGS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&

$$

PUBLIC.................PETERSON
AVIATION...............DL

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.