FXUS61 KBTV 010707
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
207 AM EST TUE DEC 1 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
NORTH COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS
AND PARTIAL CLEARING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWER
OR FLURRY ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. AFTER A
PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE DAY WEDNESDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGION
BRINGING RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH COUNTRY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 901 PM EST MONDAY...RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS ALSO LINGERING THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH SOME CLEARING CAN BE SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE
RIDGING. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
30S WITH A FEW OF THE USUALLY COOL SPOTS IN THE 20S. WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WHILE THE ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM WILL SEE
THE UPPER TEENS FOR LOWS. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL
COVERED...SO NO UPDATE IS NEEDED THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY THIS AFTN IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH SWEPT
SEWD THRU THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HRS. PARTIAL
CLEARING IS NOTED NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-
LEVEL DRYING AND INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HRS WITH NWLY/NLY WIND REGIME. SFC WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS EWD...CRESTING
OVER THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AROUND 06Z. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT PER UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL
RH FIELDS...AND LIGHT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING EFFECTS JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM MID 20S ACROSS MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND IN THE UPR
TEENS FOR THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT GIVEN EXPECTATION
FOR PARTIAL CLEARING. OTHERWISE...HAVE INCLUDED JUST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY THRU
MIDNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHALLOW INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. ANY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO NWLY
UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS OF THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND GREEN MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 337 PM EST MONDAY...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TUESDAY IS
POTENTIAL LAKE ENHANCED SNOWS FROM LAKE ONTARIO...AND NORTHWARD
AND EWD EXTENT OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS ST. LAWRENCE AND
FRANKLIN COUNTIES IN NY. A WEAKENING SFC-700MB TROUGH TRACKS
ESEWD FROM SERN ONTARIO AT 12Z TUESDAY INTO VT BY AFTN. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER...BUT ALSO
HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES VCNTY LAKE ONTARIO WITH MEAN SFC-
850MB WIND VECTORS BACKING TO 230DEG AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS LAKE ONTARIO ENHANCED SNOW BAND AND
MOISTURE ENEWD INTO SRN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY
FOR SEVERAL HRS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE INCORPORATED THIS
INTO THE FCST...WITH LOCALIZED D-2" SNOW AMTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
IN SERN ST. LAWRENCE/SRN FRANKLIN COUNTIES BEFORE BAND SHIFTS SWD
AND WEAKENS. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL BE ABOVE 1 KFT WITH
VALLEY TEMPS GETTING ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY AFTN.
ELSEWHERE...DECAYING NATURE OF UPR TROUGH SUGGESTS NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PCPN OUTSIDE OF LAKE ENHANCED ZONE. INCLUDED 20-30
POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT DURING TUESDAY AFTN...BUT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
FLURRY IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND CT RIVER VALLEYS TUES
AFTN. STAYED NEAR MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...MAINLY
MID 30S 1-2 KFT AND UPR 30S TO NEAR 40F IN THE IMMEDIATE
CHAMPLAIN/ST. LAWRENCE/CT RIVER VALLEY AREAS.
UPR TROUGH MOVES PAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
INCREASING 1000-500MB HEIGHTS/850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP LOWS
SEASONABLE TUESDAY NIGHT - MAINLY IN THE 20S. ON
WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU EARLY AFTN
WITH BROAD SLY TO SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN 850MB TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR +4C DURING THE AFTN. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
NICELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S...EXCEPT AROUND 40 FOR
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VT. CLOUDS STEADILY INCREASE MID-LATE
AFTN WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF STRONGER ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH TN/OH RIVER VALLEY LOW PRESSURE CENTER. USED 15Z
SREF CONSENSUS TO INDICATE A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS REACHING OUR
SWRN FORECAST AREA DURING THE 21-00Z PERIOD.
12Z NWP SUITE CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN INLAND STORM TRACK WITH
RATHER INTENSE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NWD ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN NY
STATE...WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN STRONG SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS SHOWS CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE LOW DOWN TO 983MB AS LOW PASSES NEAR KROC AT 12Z
THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR +10C ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 40S...AND MAY
WARM OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG SLY FLOW. HAVE SHOWN POPS 80-90
PERCENT RANGE BASED ON GOOD MODEL CONSISTENCY AND POTENTIAL FOR
AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSITY PCPN AS BEST WAA ASSOCIATED LIFT
PASSES THRU THE REGION. RAINFALL AMTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE THRU 12Z THURSDAY...AS DRY SLOT BEGINS TO WORK INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SW. DO NOT FORESEE ANY WINTER WEATHER
CONCERNS BASED ON CURRENT TRACK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
THREAT OF STRONG WINDS...BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL STABILITY WILL
PROBABLY CONFINE ANY GUSTS 35+ MPH TO ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
GREEN MTNS...AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN
ADIRONDACKS AND THE GREENS. HAVE SHOWN GUSTS 35-40 MPH IN THESE
LOCALIZED AREAS IN THE CURRENT SET OF FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM EST TUESDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTH COUNTRY. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS
FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST FRI AND FRI PM. UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LIFTS
AWAY FROM THE REGION SATURDAY...AND A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES WELL EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...PASSING OUTSIDE OF
THE BENCHMARK. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH CENTER OF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HOLDS TRUE. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...CURRENTLY CIGS ARE GENERALLY VFR BUT WITH
MVFR AT KSLK. A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS TO NORTHERN TAF SITS TOMORROW... IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES EARLY MORNING AT KMSS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS...AND VFR SPRINKLES NEAR KBTV AND KPBG MID TO LATE
MORNING...THOUGH MOST LIKELY IN THE CPV WE WILL JUST SEE VIRGA.
AFTER 15Z KSLK COULD SEE SOME MVFR -SHSN FROM THE TAIL END OF
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO. THESE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO
IMPACT KRUT AND EVEN KMPV IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT
AND FROM THE NW TONIGHT...BACKING TO SSW BY MORNING. MTNS WILL BE
OBSCURED IN CLOUDS IN THE DACKS AFTER 14Z AND POSSIBLY IN THE
GREENS AFTER 18Z. CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT WITH VFR CEILINGS
AND VISBYS.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WED THRU 00Z THU...VFR.
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS/LLWS
POSSIBLE.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SAT...VFR/MVFR IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS..MAINLY
NRN MTNS.
00Z SAT THRU 00Z SUN...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
BTV REMAINS WITHOUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL SO FAR THIS SEASON. THE
RECORD LATEST DATE IS WITHIN SIGHT.
FOR BURLINGTON...ON AVERAGE THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOW HAPPENS
NOVEMBER 6TH. HERE ARE THE 10 LATEST FIRST SNOWS FOR BURLINGTON
GOING BACK TO 1906...ALONG WITH THE SEASONAL TOTAL SNOW THAT
FOLLOWED.
SEASON TOTAL
RANK DATE SNOWFALL (INCHES)
1. 12/7/1937 45.1
2. 12/5/1915 54.4
3. 12/1/1948 40.7
4. 11/30/1918 69.6
11/30/1953 83.6
11/30/1960 51.6
7. 11/28/1913 56.5
8. 11/27/1941 57.7
9. 11/26/1982 80.5
10. 11/25/1957 94.9
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...BANACOS/MB
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...NEILES
CLIMATE...
