FXUS64 KHUN 011135
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
535 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MSL UNTIL ARND
15Z DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES UNTIL 09Z
TONIGHT. AFTER 09Z AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF/SFC LOW WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. GRADIENT WINDS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I65...THIS INCLUDES
THE HUN TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2009/ 

UPDATE...AFTER EXAMINING THE FORECAST FOR WIND GUSTS STARTING
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH WED...WILL NEED TO GO AHEAD
AND ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND E OF I-65 AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT
OF THE NW GULF AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND WED.

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OF THE TN VALLEY THIS
EARLY MORNING WITH TEMPS HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK. A FEW
PATCHES OF FREEZING FOG ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN
THE SHELTERED AREAS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF FOG IN THE
FORECAST AND/OR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW GIVEN THE VERY PATCHY
NATURE OF THE FOG AND THE CURRENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREAD. IF WX/FOG
CONDITIONS THOUGH START TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE TOWARD
DAYBREAK...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE...A FAIRLY NICE AND MILD DAY LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE 
TN VALLEY AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EWD AND HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN 
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW. WX CONDITIONS THOUGH WILL BE 
RAPIDLY CHANGING STARTING TONIGHT AS THE ADVERTISED AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE OUT OF THE WRN GULF BEGINS TO TRACK TOWARD THE NE. QUITE A 
BIT OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS EXISTS THIS EARLY 
MORNING REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW LATE TONIGHT AND WED.
THE GFS LOOKS TO TAKE A MORE ERN TRACK WITH THE LOW WHILE THE NAM
MOVES THE LOW CLOSER TO THE MS/AL BORDER...WHILE THE ECMWF ALMOST
TRIES TO SPLIT THE TRACK BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM. A MORE WWD TRACK
WOULD PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS...ALONG WITH
SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT FORECAST IN TACT TRANSLATING INTO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME NE AL
WED. BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SFC LOW.

SOME FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE SE 
REGION WED NT/EARLY THU AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE 
TN VALLEY. A STRONG/EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH POLAR AIR 
IN TOW...THEN LOOKS TO BUILD SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND INTO 
THE ERN CONUS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS RETURNING THU NT. OVERALL 
TEMPS THEN LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE 
SFC HIGH GRADUALLY MOVES EWD.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COLBERT...CULLMAN...DEKALB...FRANKLIN AL...
     JACKSON...LAUDERDALE...LAWRENCE...LIMESTONE...MADISON...
     MARSHALL...MORGAN.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: FRANKLIN TN...LINCOLN...MOORE.

&&

$$

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