FXUS64 KSHV 052041
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CST SAT DEC 5 2009
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL SUNNY DAY IS BEING OBSERVED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION
TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA STRETCHED FROM OH THROUGH SE TX.
THESE HAS ALLOWED FOR RATHER CLEAR SKIES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE REMAINED ON THE COOL SIDE WITH VALUES
THIS HOUR GENERALLY SITTING AROUND THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION.
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
WEAK RETURN FLOW TO PICK BACK UP. AS A RESULT...LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN WE SAW LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST LOCATIONS
WILL AGAIN BE ABLE TO SEE LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION ON
SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW CONTINUES. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CWFA. THE SOUTHWEST MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PULL A WEAK
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CWFA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS IT MOVES EAST
THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT
LAST LONG. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH A PERTURBATION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE BACK OVER THE CWFA BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE AN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO WITH SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS EXPECTED. ON ITS HEELS WILL BE A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WHICH
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS FRONT
THE AREA MAY BE ABLE TO SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE
THE RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY BETWEEN NOW AND THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT
SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN AS SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL
BE LACKING EACH DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK
DOWN A BIT. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE CWFA
BY FRIDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE FOUR STATE FOR
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO GUI FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE WARMING WITH HIGHS
RETURNING BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK
WEEK. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...THE AREA WILL
SEE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS RETURN FLOW KICKS BACK INTO SWING
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN SEE SOME
WARMING. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS PROGRESSIVELY
MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST...THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO RETURNING TO THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE AREA...SO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE TONIGHT. MVFR LOW CLOUDS SHOULD START BEING OBSERVED AT
EAST TEXAS TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. /11/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 30 49 39 57 46 / 0 50 60 20 70
MLU 28 51 40 57 45 / 0 30 80 30 60
DEQ 23 46 33 52 38 / 0 40 50 10 30
TXK 32 47 37 55 43 / 0 40 60 10 50
ELD 25 50 38 56 44 / 0 40 80 20 60
TYR 35 46 38 55 46 / 0 50 30 10 60
GGG 33 49 40 57 46 / 0 50 50 10 60
LFK 35 52 43 62 49 / 0 60 50 20 70
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
22/11
