FXUS65 KABQ 022212
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 PM MST WED DEC 2 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ON ITS WAY TO NEW MEXICO ALONG WITH
SNOW FOR THE EASTERN HALF...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIVING
SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A 1034MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS PRESENT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST NM. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY PRESENT ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE RATON RIDGE. VERY
COLD AIR BENEATH THIS HIGH WITH POLAR ORIGIN HAS ALREADY SLID INTO
NE NM. UNLIKE THE LAST SYSTEM WHICH FEATURED MOSTLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FORCED MOSTLY BY MODERATE
UPSLOPE FLOW...WEAKER UPPER LEVELS...AND MESOSCALE PROCESSES
DOMINATING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTS. 12Z MODEL
SUITE ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
WIDESPREAD ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND TO THE EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. DESPITE LOW END QPF AMOUNTS PROGGED BY
MODELS...DENDRITIC GROWTH AND SHALLOW VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SNOW RATIOS. BITTERLY COLD
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH SNOWFALL TO
MAKE FOR A HIGH IMPACT EVENT BOTH TRAVELWISE AND ON HOME HEATING.
TIMELINE WILL FEATURE SNOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES TONIGHT
THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS AREAWIDE IN THE TEENS NORTH...20S/30S
SOUTH AND EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE PLAINS WITH 3 TO 6 OVER THE EAST
SLOPES/HIGHER TERRAIN.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
ON THE REBOUND. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS ALL OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS DO AGREE HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND THERE
WILL BE SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. GUYER
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PLAGUE A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. A
HOLE IN THE CIGS HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN ROW AND TCC BUT THAT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER...DEEPER PUSH OF COOL AIR HAS INVADED THE
STATE FROM THE NORTH. THIS PUSH WILL REACH TCC IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND REACH ROW LATER THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS SNOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST.
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND FIELD REPORTS...SNOW HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS LVS...TCC AND ROW WILL BE
AFFECTED. A STRONGER EASTERLY GAP WIND...BETWEEN 20 TO 26 KT
SUSTAINED WILL AFFECT SAF AND ABQ TONIGHT AND ONCE AGAIN LATER ON
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TERMINAL SITES.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 50
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. IT
STILL LOOKS VERY LIKELY FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. FAVORING THE EAST SLOPES OF THE FRONT RANGE AND EXTENDING
INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
WILL OBSERVE SOME SORT OF CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS EVENT IS
MAINLY DRIVEN BY A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PUSH THAT INITIALLY
MOVED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING BUT REINFORCING COLD
AIR IS CURRENTLY PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN GAPS
WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS PUSH WILL CREATE STRONGER GAP
WINDS FOR A PERIOD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE FRONT AS EVIDENT BY CURRENT RAWS DATA ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND UP AREAWIDE
HOWEVER AS THIS FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD. IT APPEARS THAT MINIMUM
VALUES WILL RISE BETWEEN 25 TO 50 PERCENT HIGHER ON THURSDAY VERSUS
TODAY/S VALUES. FAVORING CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. WESTERN AREAS
WOULD ONLY SEE A SLIGHT RISE.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FRIDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INVADE THE FORECAST AREA. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME BUT WE HAVE
RAISED THEM SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE PREDICTING A FEW DAYS
AGO. NEVERTHELESS...HUMIDITY VALUES WILL TREND DOWN AREAWIDE ON
FRIDAY VERSUS THURSDAY/S READINGS. STILL LOOKING FOR SOME GUSTINESS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BUT MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW SO THIS WILL
INHIBIT A STRONGER SURFACE FLOW MOST AREAS. SIMILAR PATTERN FOR
SATURDAY WITH A WARMER WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT WARM TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE NEXT UNSETTLED
WEATHER PERIOD WHICH IS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF WIND ON SUNDAY
AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG BUT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SUNDAY ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE MORE UNSETTLE PART TO
THE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION. CONFIDENCE DURING THIS PERIOD IS RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME SO STAY TUNED. 50
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 12 36 7 32 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 9 31 -2 31 / 5 0 10 5
CUBA............................ 12 31 0 31 / 5 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 9 35 -3 33 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 13 35 0 34 / 0 0 0 5
GRANTS.......................... 8 38 0 35 / 0 0 5 5
QUEMADO......................... 14 38 2 35 / 0 0 0 5
GLENWOOD........................ 21 50 16 46 / 0 0 5 5
CHAMA........................... 1 26 -4 26 / 5 20 20 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 12 29 3 29 / 10 30 10 5
PECOS........................... 13 28 3 27 / 30 60 30 10
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 6 23 -4 25 / 10 20 20 5
RED RIVER....................... 5 17 -12 17 / 40 70 30 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 4 18 -8 20 / 40 70 30 5
TAOS............................ 8 24 -1 27 / 5 10 20 5
ESPANOLA........................ 14 32 7 34 / 5 10 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 14 28 4 28 / 20 50 20 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 17 30 9 30 / 20 40 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 24 33 14 31 / 5 30 20 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 25 36 18 35 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 19 37 15 36 / 5 10 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 22 36 18 35 / 5 10 10 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 16 40 10 37 / 5 5 10 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 20 36 15 34 / 5 10 10 5
SOCORRO......................... 23 42 16 40 / 0 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 16 30 2 28 / 30 60 30 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 18 28 8 28 / 20 50 40 10
CLINES CORNERS.................. 14 21 6 23 / 30 60 60 10
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 20 33 14 31 / 20 50 30 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 22 36 15 35 / 5 20 20 5
RUIDOSO......................... 18 30 7 29 / 30 40 60 30
CAPULIN......................... 3 14 -3 25 / 80 70 30 0
RATON........................... 10 21 1 27 / 60 60 30 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 14 18 0 24 / 40 60 40 5
CLAYTON......................... 9 20 9 32 / 40 50 20 0
ROY............................. 12 18 7 28 / 50 60 30 5
CONCHAS......................... 14 24 9 31 / 30 60 30 10
SANTA ROSA...................... 19 25 12 31 / 30 60 40 10
TUCUMCARI....................... 17 25 10 30 / 20 50 30 10
CLOVIS.......................... 20 23 15 32 / 20 50 50 10
PORTALES........................ 20 25 14 32 / 20 50 50 10
FORT SUMNER..................... 20 28 16 30 / 20 50 40 20
ROSWELL......................... 24 31 20 31 / 20 30 60 30
PICACHO......................... 19 30 18 30 / 20 50 60 30
ELK............................. 23 33 16 31 / 20 30 60 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ535>538.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-518-521>524-526>534-539-540.
&&
$$
GUYER/50
