FXUS64 KOUN 222202
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
402 PM CST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. ALTHOUGH AIR ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
IS NOT TOO COLD YET... THE COLDER AIR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE COURSE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. UPSTAIRS... THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO ARIZONA WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT WITH STRONGER LIFT THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS WAVE. WITH THE MOIST LOW-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE AND THE BOUNDARY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA...
IT IS LOOKING LIKE HIGHER CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAIN AS OPPOSED TO
JUST DRIZZLE AND HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED THE POPS.
THE 12Z MODELS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT IS SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AFTER
THE FIRST WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA... SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH THIS SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON ALLOWING COLDER AIR TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH
FROM OREGON SWINGS EAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND
PASSES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. WHILE THE BEST MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST
AS THE FIRST WAVE MOVES EAST... LINGERING MOISTURE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION TO PERSIST. ENOUGH COOL AIR FILTERS
INTO THE AREA TO SUPPORT THE CHANGE TO SNOW IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO THE BUFR SOUNDINGS... WITH
THE COOL AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AS PRECIPITATION IS WANING.
THE OVERLAP BETWEEN THE SUFFICIENTLY COLD LOW-LEVEL AIR AND
PRECIPITATION MAY ALLOW SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS /AN INCH OR SO/
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BUT STILL DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. MORE LIKELY TO BE NOTICED WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS
/25 TO 35 MPH IN SOME AREAS/ ON CHRISTMAS EVE IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AS THIS SECOND WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE WIND IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLDER LOW-
LEVEL AIR WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COLD. PRECIP MAY LINGER NORTH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SECOND LOW... BUT MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED.
IN THE EXTENDED... NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES EXCEPT TO LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 48 59 32 38 / 30 70 50 30
HOBART OK 44 55 29 37 / 20 40 40 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 50 65 34 39 / 20 40 50 20
GAGE OK 34 39 21 30 / 40 60 50 20
PONCA CITY OK 43 50 30 36 / 70 90 60 50
DURANT OK 56 68 40 42 / 60 60 70 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
