FXUS61 KBGM 111948
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EST FRI DEC 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU REGION TODAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE TUG HILL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 11:50 AM...IMPRESSIVE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES OFF OF
LAKE ONTARIO. IN THE STRONGEST PART OF THE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN TUG HILL REGION...35 TO 40 DBZ'S ARE SHOWING UP ON
THE KTYX RADAR. SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS AREA MAY BE EXCEEDING 4
INCHES PER HOUR! SO FAR THE MAIN PART OF THE BAND HAS BEEN JUST TO
OUR NORTH IN LEWIS/OSWEGO COUNTIES BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IT
HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DRIFT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DOING A
VERY GOOD JOB WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BAND BUT THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION NAM12 HAS DONE THE BEST. BASED ON THIS...THE BAND WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH 21Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT DRIFT
SOUTH. HIGHEST IMPACT INITIALLY WILL REMAIN NEAR OUR BORDER WITH
LEWIS COUNTY IN PLACES SUCH AS BOONVILLE....WOODGATE...AVA AND
FLORENCE. WITH THE SLIGHT DRIFT SOUTHWARD...BY 21Z THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE BAND WILL BE ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM CAMDEN TO
STEUBEN. NORTH OF THIS LINE SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE INTENSE WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR COMMON...WITH UP TO 3 OR EVEN 4 INCHES PER
HOUR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATE...WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO OVER 30 KTS AT
KRME...SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BE A MAJOR PROBLEM.
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON THE LAKE ONTARIO BAND...WE ARE SEE SOME
LIGHT FLURRIES OFF OF LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SQUALLS WITH THIS
BAND WILL STAY WEST OF OUR CWA...BUT FLURRIES OR EVEN A BRIEF
SQUALL IS POSSIBLE FROM THE FINGER LAKES AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS.
OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS...IT IS CHILLY AND VERY WINDY FOR
THE REST OF US!
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHRT WV APRCHS THE AREA SAT NGT AND EXITS EARLY MON. FCST AREA
UNDER A FLAT RDG AND WITH WRMG AHD OF THE LOW PCPN TYPE IN
QUESTION. OPERATIONAL NAM REALLY THE WRMST OF THE MODELS WITH A
WIDESPREAD LGT RAIN EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. ON THE COLD
SIDE IS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT...EVEN IN NE
PA...WITH SOME CONCERNING QPF AMTS. IN THE MIDDLE FALL THE GFS
AND SREF MEAN. AS USUAL...FELT THE SAFEST BET ATTM WLD BE TO GO
WITH THE AVG OF SOLNS WHICH IS NEAR THE SREF AND GFS. THIS WLD
BRING SOME LGT SNOW FLWD BY MIXED PCPN TO MUCH OF THE FCST AREA.
ONLY XCPTN MADE WAS FOR THE XTRM NORTH WHERE AVGS GIVE ALL SNOW
FOR THE EVEN. DECIDED NOT TO BUY THE HEAVIER EURO AMTS AND WITH WITH
GNRLY LGT QPF AND SNOW ACCUMS.
NAM USES IT/S TIGHTER BAROCLINIC ZONE TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW MORE AS
IT RCHS THE CST. THIS ALLOWS THE PCPN TO LINGER MUCH OF SUN NGT
AND EVEN INTO EARLY MON. ONCE AGAIN WENT MORE TWRD THE MEAN SOLN
AND TAPER THE PCPN AFTER DARK SUN...AND KEEP THE FCST AREA DRY ON
MON WITH WEAK RDGG.
ATTM...DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A FLAG-ABLE EVENT BUT WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST IN CASE THE ECMWF HAPPENS TO BE ONTO
SOMETHING. IN THAT ECMWF SCENARIO...AVRIL INCHES OF SNOW WALD FALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS LOOK LIKE THEY'LL PREVAIL MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER
TUESDAY...MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK...ALONG WITH A DAILY CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES...WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HEAVY LES BAND IS FCST TO DROPS SLWLY SOUTH AND SHD GET CLOSE TO
THE RME AND SYR AIRPORTS LTR TODAY. THIS SHD BRING SOME OCNL IFR
VSBYS TO BOTH LOCATIONS IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. BAND WILL
THEN LINGER N EAR THE SITES THRU OR NEAR TO THE END OF THE SHRT
TERM FCST PD.
TO THE SOUTH...LAKE ERIE BAND IS AGAIN FCST BY THE LOCAL WRF TO
DROP SWRD THIS EVE. CRNT RUN HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE PRESENT
LOCATION OF THE BAND ACROSS THE CNTRL FINGER LAKES...AND SOME SNOW
SHWRS ARE ON GOING AT ITH. XPCT THIS BAND TO OCNLY LWR VSBYS INTO
THE IFR CAT LTR THIS AFTN AND EVE IN ELM...ITH AND BGM BEFORE
DROPPING INTO NRN PA LATE. AT AVP...TAIL END OF THE BAND SHD BRING
SOME LATE NGT SNOW SHWRS...BUT VFR OR MVFR CONDS SHD REMAIN.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BANDS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL
GNRLY BE WLY AT 15 TO 20 KNTS BUT WITH MIXING AND NEAR THE SNOW
BANDS...GUSTS TO NEAR AND ABV 30 KTS PSBL. GRADIENT SLACKENS AND
WINDS WEAKEN ON SAT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGHLY VARIABLE CIGS/VSBYS AT KSYR-KRME
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. VFR WITH SCT-BKN
CIGS AND A CHC OF MVFR CIGS KITH-KELM-KBGM-KAVP.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR NYZ009.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM
