FXUS63 KDDC 142139
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
339 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR REGIME.
A NORTHERN BRANCH WAVE ACROSS WYOMING WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT WHILE A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM
ARIZONA AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MORNING. THE NORTHERN WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COLD AIR INTO THE PLAINS WHILE THE SOUTHERN
WAVE BRINGS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA. CURRENT
CIRROSTRATUS WILL ALSO MOVE EAST TONIGHT BRINGING CLEAR SKIES. A
COLD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE RIGHT INTO THE HEART OF THE
CWA BY MORNING AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FALL RAPIDLY ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH CWA WITH SOME SNOW
COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 3 TO 5 BELOW ZERO AROUND
HAYS AND IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS FROM GARDEN TO DODGE AND
AROUND 10 TO TEENS ELSEWHERE.
ON TUESDAY LOOK FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS
BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD AIR BEING RECIRCULATED.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS LOOK GOOD WITH TEENS NORTH TO AROUND 45 FAR
SOUTHWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTH AS THE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOWS IN
THE TEENS LOOK REASONABLE. FOR WEDNESDAY UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTH WINDS AND MORE CIRRUS CLOUDS. HAVE
LOWERED GOING HIGH TEMPS A BIT WITH SOME CIRRUS FORECAST AND HAVE
GONE TOWARD THE COOLER NAM TEMPS. THE NAM HOWEVER IS STILLS
STRUGGLING WITH 2 METER TEMPS WITH ITS PERCEPTION OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND AROUND DODGE CITY AND NORTH. THE COLDEST SHOULD STILL BE IN
THE HAYS AREA IN THE MID 30S, WITH 40S CENTRAL, AND MID 50S FAR WEST.
DAYS 3-7...
THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THURSDAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS IN NON SNOW-COVERED AREAS TO REACH INTO
THE LOWER 50S. SNOW COVERED AREAS IN OUR FAR NORTH COULD RESULT IN
MAXES ABOUT 10F LOWER. THE ECMWF/GFS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AFTER
WEDNESDAY. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE LESS AMPLIFIED. DECIDE TO GO
WITH THE FORMER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD MEAN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL
BUT MAINLY DRY WEATHER, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. A FEW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE HIGHLY UNLIKELY.
&&
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 3 29 15 47 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 3 30 16 48 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 13 43 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 8 37 19 52 / 0 0 0 0
HYS -3 18 10 37 / 0 0 0 0
P28 9 31 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
FN06/24
