FXUS63 KSGF 160511
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1111 PM CST TUE DEC 15 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SETTLED OVER THE MISSOURI AND 
IOWA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD 
AIRMASS THAT HAS SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE NATIONS MID SECTION.  
DESPITE SUNNY SKIES TODAY...TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO WARM OUT OF 
THE 20S IN SOME SPOTS.  SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS WERE MEASURED IN 
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AS MID 30S WERE COMMON NEAR WEST PLAINS AND 
GAINESVILLE. 

THIS AIRMASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS AND CLEAR 
SKIES WILL CREATE NEAR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.  MOS 
GUIDANCE IS GOING WAY TOO WARM...AND I LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL 
DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE.  LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER 
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...SEVERAL LOCATIONS MEASURED READINGS BELOW 
ZERO.  EVEN IN AREAS WITHOUT A SNOW PACK...SUCH AS AREAS ALONG A 
LINE FROM DODGE CITY TO LAWRENCE...LOWS FELL INTO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS.  IT WOULDNT SURPRISE ME IF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION...EXPERIENCES 
SINGLE DIGIT READINGS TONIGHT.  LOW TO MIDDLE TEENS ARE EXPECTED 
ELSEWHERE.

A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF 
SOUTHERLY WINDS COMMENCING.  FULL SUNSHINE WORKING ON A DRY AIRMASS 
WILL ALSO HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S...WITH 
LOWER 50S POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST 
KANSAS.  A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...PRIOR TO A COLD 
FRONT APPROACHING BY THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT 
WILL CREATE DECENT LIFT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.  AS 
A MATTER OF FACT...FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED 
OUT ON FRIDAY.  DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE...LITTLE TO NO 
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.  WE ALSO HAVE TO CONSIDER DIURNAL 
EFFECTS ON DAYTIME SNOW EPISODES IN THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY...WHICH 
SEEMS TO ALWAYS HAVE AN IMPACT WITH REDUCING ACCUMULATION 
POTENTIAL.  

A FEW RESIDUAL FLAKES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE 
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES EAST OF THE REGION.  THIS WEEKEND WILL 
FEATURE A MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME (SURPRISE SURPRISE)...THAT WILL 
IMPACT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS.  THERE ARE 
SIGNALS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF THAT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE 
WILL MIGRATE INTO THE OZARKS BY MONDAY...POTENTIALLY SETTING OFF 
ANOTHER EPISODE OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW.  GIVEN THE MEAN NORTHWEST 
FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...THERE IS LITTLE POTENTIAL 
FOR ANY GULF CONNECTION THIS FAR NORTH.  THEREFORE ANY PRECIPITATION 
EVENTS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE TO INTERACT WITH PACIFIC BASED 
MOISTURE...ULTIMATELY CREATING SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATIONS ON 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREAS WEATHER
REGIME.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$