FXUS64 KMEG 280525
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009
.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 900 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PLOTS PLACE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
IS BRINGING CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT SOUTH /NEARLY CALM WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CST IN THE 40S ACROSS AREAS IN THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA INCLUDING NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY IN WEST TENNESSEE. WILL NEED TO ISSUE AN UPDATE TO LOWER
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FORECAST LOWS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST OVERALL ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 258 PM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/
SKIES REMAIN SUNNY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO INTO THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
DRY AND MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ENDING SOMETIME ON MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RAINFALL
FROM THIS FRONT TO KEEP MEMPHIS AND JACKSON TENNESSEE FROM HAVING
THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT KEEPING THINGS COOL AND DRY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAYS FORECAST APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH THE GULF COAST
STATES AND A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS SO FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AGAIN FOR
THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND VEER SLIGHTLY 15-23Z.
MBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 41 67 48 64 / 0 0 10 40
MKL 34 65 44 61 / 0 0 10 40
JBR 38 63 46 58 / 0 0 10 60
TUP 33 64 43 64 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
