FXUS63 KOAX 141924
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
124 PM CST MON DEC 14 2009
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST UPDATED EARLIER TO REMOVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HEADLINES.
DEE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM...TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY...AND THE NEED FOR A WINDCHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT.
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SFC LOW BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND
KANSAS CITY...WITH THE COLD AIR SPILLING IN BEHIND THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES ACRS THE LOCAL AREA RANGED FROM 3 DEGREES IN THE NORTH
TO 32 DEGREES AT FALLS CITY AND 34 AT CLARINDA. A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION IS STILL BEING REPORTED IN THE OMAHA/BELLEVUE AREA WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND LIGHT SNOW AT TEKAMAH...FREMONT...AND LINCOLN.
THIS MORNING...THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLY ON. AS THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST...THE DEPTH
OF THE VERY COLD AIR TO DEEPEN ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THIS LEADS TO A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TRACE TODAY AS FALLING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
EARLIER THIS MORNING THE WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY SHOWED A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE TROF OVR ERN CO. IN JUST A FEW
HOURS...THIS WAVE HAS MADE IT INTO CNTRL KS AND IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT TO THE EAST BY 15Z. THE RUC AND THE WRF HRRR WERE THE ONLY
MODELS TO PICK UP ON THE LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AND
NOW THE 06Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER FEEL FOR THE LIGHT SNOW
SPREADING EASTWARD WITH THIS FEATURE. ALTHOUGH THE WSR-88D RADAR
MOSAICS SHOW A LOT RETURNS...THERE IS NOT A LOT REACHING THE
GROUND. THERE IS SOME UVV/FRONTOGENESIS AND A PV ANOMALY WITH THIS
FEATURE...IN ADDITION...THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE IT
EASIER TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW. ADDED POPS TO THIS MORNING FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES AND KEPT A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE SOUTHEAST. CALLS TO COUNTIES YIELD SLICK ROADS/SHEET OF
ICE REPORTS. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S...AND DRIZZLE AND
SNOW BEING REPORTED...THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE A RAPID FREEZE AS
TEMPERATURES FOR THRU THE 20S IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 8AM AND
ADDED THE REST OF OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY. WITH THE
GUST NORTHWEST WINDS...PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL
OCCASIONALLY HIT -20 DEG WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN HWO
AND NOWS. TONIGHT...THE AREA IS SOLIDLY IN ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
WILL LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. FORECAST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 5
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.
STILL COLD AGAIN TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOW TO MOVE
OUT WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S WED AND THU.
IN THE EXTENDED...THERE IS STILL A SHORTWAVE TROF IN NW FLOW THAT
SWINGS THRU THE REGION. THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF US...HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE A CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES IN OUR AREA. LOOKS COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
REINFORCING COLD AIR MOVING IN FROM CANADA.
AVIATION...
TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
06Z TAFS
WINTRY WEATHER MOVING THROUGH THE TAF SITES WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KOFK...BUT -FZDZ AT
KLNK AND KOMA SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY 08-10Z AT KLNK AND 09-12Z
AT KOMA. PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY END AT KOFK/KLNK BY 12Z...AND KOMA BY
13Z...ALTHOUGH SOME -SN COULD STILL LINGER AT KOMA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTERED
OUT AT KOFK BY 20Z...23Z AT KLNK AND 01Z AT KOMA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
ZAPOTOCNY
