FXUS63 KJKL 092332
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 PM EST WED DEC 9 2009

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

BOUNDARY LAYER ATTM IS WELL MIXED AND CONNECTED TO A +50 KNOT JET.
THE JET IS EXPECTED TO WEAK SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT MODELS DO NOT EXPECT A FULL DECOUPLING UNTIL THU NIGHT...
EXCEPT OF COURSE IN THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS. HIGH WINDS ARE
ONGOING BUT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPOSURE. WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO
BE A THREAT INTO EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TREES...POWER
LINES...HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ETC. SO HIGH WIND WARNING WILL CONTINUE
AND LET EVENING SHIFT MAKE THE ALL CLEAR CALL.

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PRETTY MUCH NOT MATERIALIZED AS EXPECTED BUT
WILL KEEP A MENTION OF A ISOLATED FOR PART OF THE AREA TO EARLY
EVENING.

OTHERWISE THIS WILL BE A QUIET PERIOD AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN CANADA. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE AREA FOR THU/FRI BUT ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ON THU
FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS. MIGHT HAVE A BIT OF A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT SAT MORNING. MOS DOES NOT THINK SO BUT IMPLIED ABOUT AN 8F
DEGREE SPLIT.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC 
WEATHER MAKERS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC 
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LEADS 
TO A GENERALLY COOLER FORECAST THAN THE LATEST MEX MOS GUIDANCE 
WOULD INDICATE. ONE OF THE PRIMARY CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM  
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES 
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS BASED ON THE 12Z GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 
06Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. CHANCES 
OF OCCURRENCE OF FREEZING RAIN REMAIN LOW...BUT EVEN AN HOUR OR TWO 
OF 0.01 INCH PER HOUR FREEZING RAIN CAN HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ON SUNDAY SO THAT ANY CONTINUING 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PLAIN RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. JKL MAY SEE SEVERAL HOURS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AT 3K AFTER 3 OR 4Z...BUT NOTHING BELOW THAT IS
ANTICIPATED. LOZ AND SME WILL STAY AROUND 3.5K WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS
AND FOR A SHORTER PERIOD THAN AT JKL AS THE APPROACHING CLOUD SHIELD
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE VERY FAR SOUTH BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE WILL REMAIN STRONG
WINDS THROUGH 4Z 0R S0. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH GUSTS OF
UP TO AROUND 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AFTER 4Z THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE AND THE GUSTINESS WILL CEASE. BY 13 OR 14Z THURSDAY THE WIND
SHOULD HAVE DROPPED BELOW 10 MPH. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SCATTER
OUT AROUND SUNRISE AND GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BOARD BY 20Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GV
LONG TERM....SBH
AVIATION...AR