FXUS65 KLKN 042139
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
139 PM PST FRI DEC 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES TO NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AGREE ON A FAIRLY DRY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIMITED ATTM SO EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW IN MOST AREAS. FIRST SYSTEM KICKS OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DROPS DUE SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE SUNDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM DIGS INTO
WESTERN NV ON MONDAY KEEP STRONGEST DYNAMICS WEST AND SOUTH THE
CWA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
WILL FEATURE BROAD TROFFING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....AND THEN A 
SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. 
GENERALLY SPEAKING...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ON TAP FOR THE 
HIGH DESERT REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY 
THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ENABLING A STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY TO MOVE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA...AND A POOL OF COLD AIR TO MOVE INTO THE LKN 
CWA. ANTICIPATE DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE LKN 
CWA. THIS DYNAMICS...COUPLED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING LIGHT 
SNOWS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA. 

A SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN 
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND PROGRESSIVE 
ZONAL FLOW. THE TRACK OF THE H5 LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND INTO UTAH ON THURSDAY. THE SNOW 
LEVEL WILL DIP BELOW 2500 FEET AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN NYE 
COUNTY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE CWA WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY CONSISTENTLY BETWEEN 
RUNS...SO THE TIMING OF THE SECOND EVENT MAY NEED TO BE FINE TUNED 
AT A LATER JUNCTURE IN TIME. COLD HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL PERSIST 
ACROSS THE SILVER STATE FROM DAY 3 TO DAY 7 RESULTING IN BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NEVADA TODAY 
...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&

$$

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