FXAK67 PAJK 232302
AFDAJK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
202 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...A FUN DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA PANHANDLE. WEATHER
FRONT MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLE AREA HAS LIFTED ALOFT AND IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE INLAND IN THAT PATTERN. THUS MOST OF THE
EXPECTED WARMING AT THE LOWER LEVELS DID NOT MATERIALIZE. SAW THE
EXPANSION OF SEVERAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO A WINTER STORM
FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES TOTAL. SNOW IS CONTINUING
TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE INNER CHANNEL REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWS SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND SHOULD SEE THE
WARNINGS/ADVISORY THAT ARE TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM TO BE ALLOWED TO DO SO.
 
SOME LOW LEVEL COOLING OVER THE NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK NOW A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT. A TROUGH ALOFT IS
ESCORTING A SURFACE FRONT NORTH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE BY THURSDAY MORNING... AND THEN
NORTH TO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY. THIS LOW WILL
USHER FORTH ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM AIR THAT SHOULD MAKE INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE EXCEPT THAT IT SEEMS THE CONTINUED OUTFLOW
BRITISH COLUMBIA NEAR HYDER WILL KEEP THE COOLER AIR IN PLACE
THERE THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SNOWFALL
AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE ANOTHER
2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER... FOR EARLY MORNING. 

WINDS INCREASING AGAIN FOR THE COASTAL AREAS TO GALE FORCE FOR THE
OUTER WATERS... AND SOUTHERN INNER WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT FOR WIND. 

 && 

.LONG TERM...MAJOR UPR LOW PERSISTS OVR THE CENTRAL BERING SEA
BUT THE COLDST AIR ALF BACK AT SAKHALIN ISL. VERY STRONG ZONAL
JET FROM INDIA INTO THE PACIFIC ALG 35N WITH CORE SPEEDS AROUND
180 KT AT 250 HPA AND EXIT AROUND 150W. UPR RDG AXIS HAS MOVD TO
130W THIS MORNING WITH A SHORT WAVE OVR KODIAK SUPPORTING A
982 MB GALE OVR THE CENTRAL GULF. SLOW FRONT MOVG OVR PANHANDLE
MID MORNING AND AIR BEHIND FRONT LUKS DRY AS PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  

23/12Z OPS MODELS IN VRY CLOSE AGREEMNT THU NITE AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD SMALL. WILL USE AK-GFS-40 TO BRIDGE FROM THU INTO SUN. ALL
SIGNALS SO FAR ARE FOR WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WILL
ADJUST TEMPS UP AND LESS MENTION OF SNOW. HPC GRIDS LOOK FINE
REGARDING THE MAIN STORM FORCE LOW PERSISTING S OF COLD BAY SUN
AND MON WHICH DIES ON TUE NEAR SAND POINT. HPC PRES GRIDS USED
DAYS 4-8 AND IMPLIED FCSTS OFF THEIR 500 HPA PROGS. CONFIDENCE
HIGH THRU SAT THEN MODERATE SUN INTO WED.

 && 

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019>021-
     026.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR AKZ029.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-041>043-051-052. 
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ021-022-031>035-053.

&&

$$

BEZENEK/JCC