FXUS61 KBGM 061133
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
633 AM EST SUN DEC 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MAINTAIN A SEASONABLY
COLD WESTERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE ONTARIO. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OVER CENTRAL NEW
YORK INTO TUESDAY...BUT GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH SNOW AND
RAIN LIKELY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE OH VLY WILL DRIFT E TDA INTO THE MID ATLC
STATES. NW FLOW ACRS THE FCST AREA WILL GRADUALLY BACK TDA AND
TNGT TO THE WSW. CONCERNING LES POTNL...LAKE SNOW PARAMETER NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRSV...MAXING OUT ACRS NRN ZONES ARND 00Z. MDL PROFILES
ALSO NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRSV...WITH BEST SNOW GROWTH DISPLACED
FROM BEST OMEGA. IN ADDN INSTABILTY NOT VERY IMPRSV WILL
CONTINUNE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS NRN ZONES TDA WITH BAND OF MORE
CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY WORKING INTO NRN ONEIDA THIS AFTN. POTNL FOR
AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM THERE THIS AFTN AND AGAIN THIS EVNG. OTRW
PC SKIES MOST OTHER AREAS...,MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY THIS
MRNG...ACRS THE FINGER LAKES AND STEBEN COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME -SHSN MAY BE PSBL LATE MONDAY INTO MON NGT ACRS N CNTRL NY DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF A WEAK S/WV AND ASSCD WAA-INDUCED PCPN...AND
THEN SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT -SHSN IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE
MON NGT INTO TUE MRNG. ANY ACCUMS SHUD BE ON THE LGT SIDE. MORE
SIG PCPN IN THE FORM OF LGT TO MDT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN
LATER TUES NGT AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO THE OH VLY. POTNL FOR ACCUMS
OF 1-3 INCHES BEFORE DAYBREAK ACRS NE PA AND THE FAR SRN TIER OF
NY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS STILL INDICATES THAT A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S...STARTING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST
EURO/GFS/CANADIAN RUNS...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES...SUGGEST THAT
THE MAIN PARENT LOW WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST...THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...MICHIGAN...AND INTO EASTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE...TO
VARYING DEGREES...THERE ARE HINTS OF SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE EAST COAST. THERMAL PROFILES WOULD POINT TOWARDS SNOW AT THE
ONSET LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A PROGGED STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW/WARM ADVECTION SITUATION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALONG
WITH PATTERN RECOGNITION FOR THESE KINDS OF EVENTS...WOULD IMPLY A
TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION...AND THEN ULTIMATELY RAIN FOR
AT LEAST THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE ABOVE MENTIONED STORM...A MUCH COLDER WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN WILL SET IN FROM THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WE'LL GO WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES...AS THE LAKE-EFFECT MACHINE GETS CRANKED UP THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD. NW FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME
LGT LES THIS MRNG AND EARLY AFTN...MAINLY AT SYR AND RME. AS THE FLOW
BACKS IT SLOWLY LIFTS THE LES BANDS NORTH OF BOTH STATIONS LTR
TODAY. WLY WINDS TODAY WILL BE SE AND LGT LATE TNGT AS THE HIPRES
DROPS SE TO THE CST.
OUTLOOK...
MON/MON NGT/TUE...POSSIBLE MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS.
TUE NGT...VFR.
WED...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW/RAIN.
WED NGT/THU...MVFR IN SHOW SHOWERS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DGM/MLJ
