FXUS63 KFGF 300939
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
339 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
.SHORT TERM...
FOR TODAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU CNTRL MANITOBA INTO
THE KENORA AREA THIS MORNING WITH 850 MB WARM ADVECTION CENTERED
OVER NW MN THRU 18Z. RADARS SHOW SOME WEAK RETURNS BUT OBS HAVE
KEPT CLOUD BASES CLOSE TO 6KFT SO MOSTLY VIRGA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
VERY LOW POPS FOR -SN ROX-ADC EASTWARD THRU EARLY AFTN BUT THAT IS
ABOUT IT. MUCH OF ERN ND AND WCNTRL MN WILL HAVE A GOOD WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND THIS AFTN WITH WEAK 850 MB COLD ADVECTION. BUT
THIS WIND COMBINED WITH SOME FILTERED SUN WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO
THE LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS.
THEN COMES TUESDAY...
SOME HUGE CHANGES TO THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS. MODELS STARTED A SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE 12Z RUNS
SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY RUNS CONTINUED A DRAMATIC SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS
WELL. THIS CAUSED SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE FCST
ESPECIALLY FOR NRN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA WHICH WILL SEE MORE
SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY FOR FAR NE
ND AND NW MN FROM LANGDON TO GRAFTON EASTWARD TO THIEF RIVER
FALLS..HALLOCK...AND BAUDETTE. THERE WILL BE A SHARP SRN CUTOFF OF
THE PCPN WITH THE SNOW OCCURRING NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TRACK AND
JUST RIGHT UNDER THE 500-700 MB TROUGHS. THIS NARROW BAND OF SNOW
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS IT MOVES THROUGH AS TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS INDICATED DEEP OMEGA UP TO 400 MB IN SNOW BAND. 850-700
MB FRONTOGENTIC FORCING QUITE STRONG AS WELL IN THE 12Z-18Z PERIOD
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO FAR NW MN VIA GFS. IT DOES APPEAR
TO BE MOVING AT A DECENT CLIP BUT IT COULD COME DOWN HEAVY AND
GIVE A QUICK 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA TUESDAY.
OVERALL...00Z GFS/GEM WERE A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND STILL OVERALL
PREFERRED WITH SFC LOW TRACK FROM ESTEVAN SASK TO VERY NEAR GRAND
FORKS THEN TO JUST NORTH OF DULUTH. NAM/ECMWF/UKMET A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THIS. TIMING IS DIFFERENT WITH THE 00Z/06Z NAM
REMAINING QUITE A BIT SLOWER. 06Z RGEM COMING IN STILL FAVORS THE
00Z GEM PATH OF AN ESTEVAN-GFK-WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TRACK WITH
15-20 MM QPF BRANDON MANITOBA TO PEMBINA-HALLOCK THEN EAST THRU
FAR NRN MN. ALSO WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE
WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 35-40 KTS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER ERN ND AND THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW...STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
OVER THE WIND BELTS OF SW ND INTO SD...BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
PRETTY TIGHT OVER THE VALLEY ESP IN THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD WITH A
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND COMPONENT. WHATEVER SNOW FALLS WILL BE A BIT
ON THE WET SIDE BUT WILL DRIFT OR BLOW AROUND SOME AS SOME SNOW
WILL BE FALLING WITH THE WIND. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS CLOUDY AND COLD WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
WITH CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THURSDAY. COORD WITH BISMARCK AND
DROPPED HIGHS WED-THU A BIT.
.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE. A MORE NORMAL WINTRY PATTERN WILL ENSURE
WITH ANOTHER COLD SHOFT NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MIDDAY AND AFTN WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS A MIX OF SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL RULE...WITH SOME LOWER VFR BASES OVER BJI
AREA THRU EARLY AFTN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NDZ007-008-016-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004>009-013.
&&
$$
RIDDLE
