FXUS62 KMLB 290157
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...

...NEXT GULF OF MEXICO LOW WITH CHANCE OF STORMS ABOUT WED...

CURRENTLY-OVERNIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME CALM 
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN 
PANHANDLE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF 
JACKSONVILLE SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING 
THE DAY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. 
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING THAT THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE STARTING TO THIN OUT 
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH CLOUDINESS SLOWING DOWN ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING 
THAT MAY BE TAKING PLACE SO CURRENT OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS MID/EXTENDED DISCUSSIONS...

MON-TUES...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION WILL 
BUILD SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE 
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN LOOKS TO STALL OUT OVER NORTH CENTRAL 
FLORIDA TUESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK 
SO WILL CONTINUE LOWER END POPS FOR TUESDAY WITH 30 POPS FROM 
ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FARTHER 
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 MON AND 
THEN EXPECT SOME SLIGHT COOLING OVER THE NORTH TUES WITH THE 
APPROACH OF THE FRONT WITH MID 70 HIGHS OVER NORTHERN LAKE AND 
VOLUSIA COUNTIES.         

WED-SAT (MODIFIED PREV DISCUSSION)...A VIGOROUS H50 SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH IS SHOWN NEARING THE WRN GOMEX AS A SFC LOW QUICKLY TAKES 
SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX. BDRY OVER ECFL WILL LIFT NWD TUE 
NGT/EARLY WED AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY NE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF 
COAST...RETURNING SEWD AS A COLD FRONT WED NGT/THU MORNING. 
ADVERTISED BAROCLINIC PATTERN FAVORS GOMEX SQLN FORMATION WITH 
STRONG 120KT+ JET OVER NERN GOMEX AND DECENT AMPLITUDE TROUGH AT H50 
LEADING TO STRONG MID/UPR FORCING. 50-60KT H85 JET ALSO CROSSES THE 
NRN HALF OF FL WED MORNING/AFTN. SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG TO SVR STORMS OVER ECFL DURING THIS WINDOW. 

LONG TERM MODELS HAVE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THURS AND THEN 
STALLING OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA SAT WITH COOLER AND DRIER 
CONDS THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO EARLY WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL SITES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MAY SEE FEW-SCT 
MARINE STRATOCU AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OFF THE 
ATLANTIC SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENTLY-SUNDAY...BUOYS RECORDING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 
KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. WINDS FORECAST TO START SHIFTING TO 
THE NORTHEAST LATE OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. 
LOOKS LIKE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS 10 KNOTS OR 
LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG VERIFIED QUITE NICELY AGAIN SATURDAY. WINDS 
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY THEN CONTINUING VEERING TO 
THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING A MARITIME AIR MASS INTO THE AREA AND START 
RAISING DEW POINTS ALONG THE COAST. AIR MASS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL 
BE SLOWER TO MODIFY AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERIOR AGAIN WITH 
RELATIVE HUMIDIFIES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S.

MON-THURS...WEAK WESTERLY WINDS MON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS OUT
OVER NRN ECFL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH WED...LIKELY CREATING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDS AS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NRN GULF AND INTO THE SE CONUS
DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURS.
1-2 FT SEAS MON WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM INTO MID
WEEK.

&&
&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WIMMER/PENDERGRAST