FXUS61 KBTV 281521
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1021 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION WITH ONLY A FEW LEFT OVER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE ACTION ON SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER
EXPECTED. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1020 AM EST SATURDAY...QUICK MORNING UPDATE TO SYNC FORECAST
GRIDS UP BASED ON CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND SFC OBS. SFC
LOW OF 977MB CURRENTLY ACROSS NEW BRUNSWICK AND STEADILY MOVING
EAST. REGION IS STILL IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTING
IN FREQUENT 30-45MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY SLACKEN DURING THE
AFTNEROON. HAVE WIND ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 7PM...BUT LIKELY WILL
BE TAKING THAT DOWN AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR HIGHEST
GUSTS I'VE SEEN HAVE BEEN 52MPH AT STOWE...50MPH AT COLCHESTER
REEF AND 48MPH HERE AT BTV. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF SCATTERED TREES
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG W/SOME POWER OUTAGES. WILL SOON ISSUE
A SUMMARY OF WIND GUSTS.
AS FOR PRECIP...RADAR SHOWING STUFF DRYING UP VERY QUICKLY.
PERHAPS ONLY SOME LIGHT STUFF ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE VT.
HAVE KEPT IN SMALL POPS IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS HIGHER TERRAIN
OF ADIRONDACKS. NO ADDITIONAL SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED. WE
ARE CURRENTLY PUTTING TOGETHER A LIST OF ALL SNOW REPORTS AS WELL.
AS EXPECTED...IT WAS A HIGHLY ELEVATIONAL EVENT...AND REALLY
NEEDED TO GET ABOVE 1500FT BEFORE ANY SORT OF ACCUMULATION. IT WAS
A WET SNOW TOO...AND WITH THE WINDS...THAT HAS LIKELY HELPED TAKE
DOWN BRANCHES AND TREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 417 AM EST SATURDAY...A RATHER TRANQUIL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
WEAK RIDGING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APRCHS SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
INCRG CLDS WITH SNOW/RAIN SHWRS LIKELY...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHUD BE LIGHT...AS QPF THRU 12Z MONDAY
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 359 AM EST SATURDAY...EXPECTING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. HAVE GONE BELOW GRIDDED MOS POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THE REGION WILL BE IN BETWEEN 2 SYSTEMS ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MODEL DIVERGE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE GFS MODEL HAVE A LOW PRESSURE AREA ALONG THE
COAST OF EASTERN MAINE AT 12Z THURSDAY... WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A
LOW OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE AT 12Z THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY...HAVE OPTED TO PUT IN A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL RUN WOULD SUGGEST A WARMER
STORM AND PRIMARILY RAIN ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS MODEL WOULD
INDICATE COLDER WITH SNOW. THUS...A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE ON THURSDAY. COLDER WEATHER TO RETURN THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA AROUND 972 MB
OVER THE BAY OF FUNDY AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
WILL LIKELY SEE SURFACE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR GREATER TIL 22Z
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD EAST FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MVFR CEILINGS
ACROSS THE REGION AT 12Z SATURDAY WILL BECOME VFR BY 15Z-18Z
SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VTZ001>012-
016>019.
NY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ028-031-034-
035.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH
