FXAK69 PAFG 262332
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
232 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 60 HOURS. MINOR
DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN TIMING OF FEATURES BUT ALL MODELS APPEAR TO
HANDLE THE COMPLEX MOVEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES FAIRLY WELL.

NORTHWEST ALASKA APPEARS TO MONOPOLIZE THE COLD AIR REGION WHILE
REMAINING PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BASK IN TEMPERATURES THAT
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE POOL OF
COLDER AIR DAMMED UP IN FAR EAST RUSSIA RELEASES AND PUSHES ONTO
THE WEST COAST BY ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
TREK THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

FIRST OF 2 LOWS HAS MOVED NORTH AND THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
TRAVELED NORTHWARD RAPIDLY AND THE DOWNSLOPE OVER CENTRAL ALASKA
IS WELL DEFINED. THE NEXT LOW WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AS WELL
AND WILL BE NEAR BARROW BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING TO NEAR YAKATAK. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WESTERN CANADA
AND DRAG COLDER AIR BACK INTO MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA MY LATE
SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

A STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
THIS WILL SERVE TO REALLY RAMP UP THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GREATLY
STRENGTHENS MONDAY OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.

POSSIBLE HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR THE ALASKA RANGE ZONES MON AND
TUESDAY. 

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ225-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ245.
&&

$$

CF NOV 09