FXUS64 KEWX 220535 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 06Z AVIATION FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 07Z-10Z THEN LOWERING FURTHER TO IFR/LIFR
CIGS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. AFTER 15Z-17 CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR/VFR. FOR
THE 30 HR TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 08Z ON
WED. S-SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN 15Z-17Z
WILL SEE S/SE WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS. WINDS DECREASE AGAIN
TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 00Z WED. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 10Z
AND 14Z WITH MVFR VSBYS AT 3 TO 5 MILES. ANY FOG WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE ESCARPMENT. WITH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT SEE ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES EXPECTED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE AND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS PROJECTED IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S ALONG AND EAST OF THE ESCARPMENT BY SUNRISE AND WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE..SHOULD SEE SOME
DRIZZLE WITH FOG INDUCEMENT LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING TUESDAY
MAINLY ALONG THE ESCARPMENT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST.
AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW AND MID CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO VFR CIGS AND VSBYS LOWERING AFTER 06Z TO MVFR AND
THEN DOWN TO IFR AFTER 10Z WITH -DZ. IFR CIGS LIKELY THROUGH 16Z-
17Z. MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER 18Z. S/SE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS
WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 00Z. ON WED WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 20 KTS AFTER 17Z. 30 HR TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CIGS
DECREASE TO IFR BY 04Z ON THURSDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CST MON DEC 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
MOIST WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE
MORNING. A MIX OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. ANOTHER
WARM AFTERNOON IS IN STORE TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A RECURRENCE OF FOG AND DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR RAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE OUT OF THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION AND ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JUNCTION TO SAN ANTONIO TO CORPUS
CHRISTI WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE GREATEST. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GENERALLY CONFINED TO EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA...BUT COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS OUR EASTERN-MOST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE THE LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY BUT MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE
INITIAL WIND SHIFT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THURSDAY BUT WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. A SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH INTO
THE REGION LATE THURSDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING JUST HOW COLD IT WILL BE ACROSS OUR REGION AND ARE
SOMEWHAT FLIP- FLOPPING FROM RUN-TO-RUN. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
TEMPERATURES STAYING JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON CHRISTMAS MORNING
EXCEPT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ARE
EXPECTED.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKS
TO BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WARMING TO NEAR 60 BY MONDAY.
MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE
OF FREEZING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTY OF THE
STRENGTH AND ALIGNMENT OF THE COLDER AIRMASS...CONFIDENCE IS
SOMEWHAT LOW ATTM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 54 73 59 73 46 / 0 - 20 30 40
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 50 71 58 73 44 / 0 - 20 30 40
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 49 73 58 73 42 / 0 - 20 20 30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 53 70 56 67 39 / 0 - 20 20 30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 48 69 52 70 38 / 0 0 0 - -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 53 71 58 68 43 / 0 - 20 40 40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 50 71 53 71 41 / 0 - 10 20 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 52 72 59 74 44 / 0 - 20 20 30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 54 72 61 75 45 / 10 10 20 30 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 54 72 57 73 44 / 0 - 10 20 30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 51 73 57 74 44 / 0 - 10 20 30
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
02/10
