FXUS64 KLIX 251756 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1156 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.UPDATE...
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING TOO FAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ROSE FASTER DURING THE LATER MORNING
HOURS WITH THE BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND WEAKER COLD AIR ADVECTION.
OTHER THEN SOME LINGERING MARINE ISSUES...THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.MARINE...
MID MORNING MARINE FORECAST RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF SOUTHWEST PASS. THIS ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS MAY
OCCASIONALLY GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS RANGE AT KMSY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
UPDATE...
..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. ANOTHER DRY SOUNDING
THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY ABOVE 775 MILLIBARS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
MODERATE TO GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE...AND
FAIRLY STRONG AND WESTERLY ALOFT. OTHERWISE A VERY QUIET DAY ON
TAP ACROSS THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS
NOW MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. ANOTHER STRONG PULSE OF COLD DRY AIR
WILL MOVING VERY FAST TOWARD THE AREA. CURRENTLY THIS SECONDARY
SURGE IS LOCATED OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY EARLY THU MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A NICE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
LONG TERM...
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN BY SUNDAY OR MON. THIS ONE LOOKS
TO HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF THERMAL AND JET LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THE MODEL USED HERE IS THE GFS. THE ETA IS A LITTLE WEAK
WITH THE 00Z SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS AND THE ECMWF IS WAY TOO STRONG. THE
ECMWF IS SHOWING 20KT STRONGER WINDS THAT WHAT THE NASHVILLE UA
SOUNDING SHOWS AT 300MB. THAT IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT GREATER AT
THAT LEVEL. THIS WOULD RESULT IN THE TROUGH PULLING OUT QUICKER
SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE CURRENT UPPER
TROUGH OUT ROUGHLY 6 HRS LATER. THIS SAME SOLUTION BRINGS A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. ATTM
WE CAN ONLY SAY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. STRONG
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT NUMBERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE. LOCAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE
CONCENTRATED AND MESHED OVER JUST THIS AREA OF THE GULF COAST ARE
SHOWING LOW END TS STRENGTH NUMBERS. IN DIRECT CONTRAST...THE
LOCALIZED SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME VERY COLD AIR AND SOME MIX OF
PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM BY TUE...AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN-MOST
PORTION OF THE AREA. REGARDLESS...NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION IS KNOWN
ON THIS SYSTEM TO CONFIRM ITS SEVERE OR WINTER WX POTENTIAL AND
THESE VARIABLES WILL BE IRONED OUT AS MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
EVALUTATED.
AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS PRETTY MUCH MOVED THROUGH ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. WITH THAT ALL SITES ARE IN VFR STATUS AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN THIS WAY THROUGH THE FCST. ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH SKC IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME CIRRUS MAY MOVE IN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NNW-N THROUGH FRI MORNING. /CAB/
MARINE...COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MOVED THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS HAVE YET TO REALLY COME UP ON THE BACK SIDE BUT I AM
STILL EXPECTING SCS HEADLINES THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
CONTINUING IN THE OUTER WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BE DURING THE DAY ON THANKSGIVING WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
AIR AND THUS STRONGER WINDS. CAA WILL BE DECENT IN THE LL AND THIS
SHOULD HELP TRANSPORT DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS JUST ABV THE
SFC. WIND GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING DURING THE
LATE AFTN HRS AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS
QUICKLY RELAX FRI MORNING AS THE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE
EAST. SCY'S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY THU AFTN/EVN WITH SCS HEADLINES
LIKELY AS EARLY AS THU MORNING. FRI AND SAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
LOW AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL RETURN SUN AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST PAST SUN NIGHT BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING WITH IT STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH SEAS TO THE AREA AGAIN. COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES COULD ALSO
BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM. AGAIN THIS IS 6-7 DAYS OUT AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT IT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 64 38 60 31 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 66 40 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 66 46 62 40 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 68 42 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
