FXUS64 KFWD 281747 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR CIGS PREVAIL ATTM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BUT RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN/OVC035
CIGS SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON BY EARLY EVENING. SATURATION OF THE
LOWEST 3000FT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A QUICK BUILDING
DOWN OF STRATUS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL BRING MVFR CIGS OVC022 IN BY
29/02Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVC007 EXPECTED BY AROUND 29/06Z ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION TO LOW CIGS...COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION BUT WILL KEEP VSBYS AROUND 3SM FOR NOW.
LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BY MORNING WITH RAIN BECOMING MORE
LIKELY NEAR THE FRONT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE CIGS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BEHIND COLD FRONT. WILL SHOW
THE FROPA AT DFW AROUND 29/21Z...AND INTRODUCE TO OTHER SITES IN
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO SUNDAY EVENING
WITH SOME TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT BY MONDAY.

91/DUNN 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/

A PLEASANT BUT BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. MOISTURE
RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH THE HELP OF A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET
AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S BY
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT NORTH TEXAS IS CURRENTLY DIGGING DOWN
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF
FROM THIS SYSTEM AND SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE DOWN THE PLAINS BRINGING DRASTIC
CHANGES TO NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY MORNING BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO BE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA ON SUNDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL FRONT /850-700 MB/ WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY WHEN
IT GETS A PUSH FROM A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT BREAKS OFF
THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL HELP BRING A VERY BRIEF END TO
THE PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY TRANSGRESSES THE REGION. THE TEMPERATURES
WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE COLDEST WE
HAVE SEEN THIS SEASON AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS. WILL MENTION THIS
WORDING IN THE ZONES BUT DO NOT EXPECT MAJOR IMPACTS AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AND ANY SNOW WILL MELT AS IT REACHES THE
GROUND.

ANOTHER DRY SURFACE FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CHILLY AND BELOW NORMAL.
FREEZES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON A FEW NIGHTS THIS WEEK IN VARYING
LOCATIONS BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK.
HAVE UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEEK.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  58  60  41  51 /   5  10  50  30  10 
WACO, TX              70  60  65  46  48 /  10  10  60  80  50 
PARIS, TX             68  55  62  41  53 /   5  10  50  40  10 
DENTON, TX            72  56  59  37  52 /   5  10  50  20  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          70  57  60  38  51 /   5  10  50  30  10 
DALLAS, TX            72  59  61  42  51 /   5  10  50  30  10 
TERRELL, TX           70  58  63  43  52 /   5  10  50  40  10 
CORSICANA, TX         70  61  67  43  48 /   5  10  60  80  30 
TEMPLE, TX            68  60  67  46  48 /  10  10  60  80  60 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$