FXUS62 KTBW 030929
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
429 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...MESSY PERIOD OF WEATHER SHAPING
UP FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. INITIAL COLD FRONT IS STILL OVER
NORTH FLORIDA BUT THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS NOW MOVING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH CHARLOTTE...DE SOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS
AND POLK COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS LINE BUT COULD STILL GET SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. 
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TODAY...STALLING SOMEWHERE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF...HELPING TO RE-ENERGIZE THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL PERIOD OF LIGHTER
OVER-RUNNING RAINS...THEN HEAVIER RAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT WILL HELP
PUSH THE MESS SOUTH OF OUR AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
 
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE EXTENDED 
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BECOME RATHER QUIET AFTER THE ACTIVE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO
PROVIDE DRIER WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TO START THE PERIOD OUT BUT THEN AS THE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST AND PROVIDES A RETURN FLOW BY
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA WILL NOT BE UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IS AGAIN EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
THE CURRENT GFS TRACK TURNS THE LOW SHARPLY NORTH AND PUSHES A
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IN SIMILAR FASHION TO THE CURRENTLY
ONGOING SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE FILLING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COOL FRONT. MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 18Z WITH VFR RETURNING AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT SOME 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS TODAY EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WILL BE ON THE WAY DOWN. WILL MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE NEXT FEW DAYS PROMISE TO BE CLOUDY
AND WET WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AGAIN. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES...BUT BELIEVE 20 KNOT WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT
AS IT CLEARS THROUGH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  59  66  58 /  30  30  80  70 
FMY  81  66  76  64 /  50  60  70  70 
GIF  78  60  67  58 /  30  30  80  70 
SRQ  76  62  69  63 /  40  40  80  70 
BKV  76  52  64  54 /  20  20  70  70 
SPG  75  61  66  59 /  30  30  80  70 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-
     HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JOHNSON