FXUS62 KFFC 160237 AAB
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
937 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009
.UPDATE...
FORECAST TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY MAY BE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM...BUT
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH OF A DIFFERENCE (A DEGREE...MAYBE TWO
AT BEST) TO SEND OUT AN UPDATE. OTHER GRIDS LOOK GOOD FOR THE MOST
PART...AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS STILL SEEMS WARRANTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
TDP
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2009/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A DRIER AIR MASS TO USHER IN FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST...WITH SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR AFTER 03Z. THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GULF TO START SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LOW FROM THE GULF MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE PRECIP TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTHWEST
TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST...ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO
PROVIDE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR...THAT COULD
PROVIDE A MIX OF WINTRY WEATHER AND RAIN ON SATURDAY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...IF THE GFS HOLDS OUT...THOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
TIME. THIS IS WHERE THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. AFTER
THIS SYSTEM LIFTS OUT...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TO
KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION...
ATL/AHN AREAS ALREADY AT OR GOING VFR WITH CIGS IN THE 4000 TO 8000
FOOT RANGE AND THESE WILL SCATTERED OUT BY 03Z LEAVING A HIGH CIRRUS
DECK THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FOR CSG/MCN...RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE LEAVING AND BOTH AREAS SHOULD VFR BY 03Z. TEMP
ADVECTION NOT AS STRONG AS THOUGHT EARLIER AND AM NOT SEEING BIG
GUSTS TO OUR NORTHWEST. FORECAST TEMP ADVECTION DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING AND FEEL THE STRONGEST GUSTS (AROUND 20 KTS) SHOULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH TOWARD 06Z AND THEN HOLD IN THE
8 TO 10KTS RANGE. PROBLEM WITH THE DIRECTION...MOS GUIDANCE KEEPS
MOST AREAS JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS MOST AREAS JUST EAST OF NORTH BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALSO TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GRAPHICAL GUIDANCE AND GO WITH NORTHEAST WINDS
ALL AREAS BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 39 58 31 57 35 / 0 0 5 5 20
ATLANTA 39 57 33 55 38 / 0 0 5 5 20
BLAIRSVILLE 35 53 26 51 31 / 0 0 0 5 10
CARTERSVILLE 37 53 26 56 31 / 0 0 5 5 20
COLUMBUS 44 61 35 58 42 / 20 0 5 10 30
GAINESVILLE 36 56 31 54 35 / 0 0 5 5 10
MACON 45 61 32 59 39 / 20 0 5 10 30
ROME 36 53 27 57 32 / 0 0 0 5 20
PEACHTREE CITY 38 57 27 56 32 / 5 0 5 10 20
VIDALIA 49 58 32 57 39 / 30 5 0 10 30
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
