FXUS64 KOHX 292029
AFDOHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
229 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009
.DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
MID TN. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY SPRINKLES...WERE NOTED FROM
THE NASHVILLE AREA DOWN TO COLUMBIA AND LEWISBURG. MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS WERE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...AROUND WAYNESBORO.
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. WE EXPECT MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO FALL TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 10 PM...AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE MID STATE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH WILL BE COMMON.
MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF I 65 BY 12Z MONDAY...THEN EAST
OF THE PLATEAU BY 18Z. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY INTO
THE MID STATE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 50S AFTER SKIES CLEAR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT SETTING UP FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE LOWS FOR MONDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS. WE WILL ALSO INCLUDE
PATCHY FOG NEAR RIVERS AND LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING THE LAST NICE DAY FOR A WHILE.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN STATES WILL SPIN UP A
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A NORTHERN STEAM SHORTWAVE COMING INTO PLAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE 12Z GFS
WHICH WAS MOVING THE LOW TOO FAR EAST AND TOO FAST. ALL SOLUTIONS
BRING HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THIS SYSTEM. GFS APPEARS TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD ADVECTION...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
COLD AIR FOR A POSSIBLE BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AS THE MOISTURE MOVES
OUT EARLY THURSDAY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ON THE PLATEAU THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. IT WILL
BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S PLATEAU AND BARELY INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP COLD WX IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
RISING HEIGHTS WILL BRING NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. WE PREFER THE DRIER AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION...HOLDING
OFF THE NEXT RAIN CHANCE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR LATER.
CLIMATOLOGY NOTE...SO FAR THIS IS THE DRIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD
FOR NASHVILLE WITH ONLY 0.22" RAINFALL. THIS TOP RANKING MAY
NOT STAND IF TONIGHT/S RAINFALL EXCEEDS OUR QPF. AS OF NOW...THE
SECOND DRIEST NOVEMBER IS 1949 WITH 0.54"...THEN 1912 WITH 0.65".
MORE DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NASHVILLE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 44 52 32 59 / 100 30 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 41 50 31 58 / 100 20 0 0
CROSSVILLE 43 47 29 56 / 100 70 0 0
COLUMBIA 45 52 32 60 / 100 40 0 10
LAWRENCEBURG 45 51 32 59 / 100 40 0 10
WAVERLY 42 51 31 59 / 100 20 0 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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